[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices saw a sharp pullback on May 7, as expectations of US-Iran peace talks heated up and geopolitical risk premiums faded

SMM Nickel News, May 7:

Macro and market news:

(1) US ADP employment data for April recorded 109,000 new jobs, slightly above expectations of 99,000, while the previous reading was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000.

(2) Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations proposed a feasible solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue: permanently ending the war, lifting the maritime blockade, and restoring normal passage.

Spot market:

On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -800-200 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract plunged sharply during the night session and hovered at lows during the morning session, closing at 148,450 yuan/mt, down 3.33%.

Trump explicitly stated on the evening of May 6 that a US-Iran deal was "very likely," that the negotiation framework had been largely finalised, that the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz was in sight, and that the sulphur supply crisis was expected to be resolved, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt, with the center likely shifting downward, as the key support below comes from the rigid cost support brought by Indonesia's new HPM policy.