Copper Prices Center Shifted Upward, Downstream Buyers Mainly Made Just-in-Time Procurement [SMM North China Spot Copper]

A workers’ strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine in Chile could reduce the operation’s November copper production by around 50% if the work stoppage continues, according to union representatives. The strike began on October 7 after two unions rejected further negotiations with Antofagasta Minerals following the failure of government-mediated talks to produce an agreement. The labour groups represent more than half of Centinela’s critical mine operators and more than 60% of equipment maintenance workers. The unions said the initial operational impact is expected to worsen gradually because mining and mine-development activities have been affected, while a large volume of waste rock still needs to be removed. They expect the full effect of the strike to become more visible in November, when production could fall by as much as half. Antofagasta has said it continues to maintain its production guidance despite the strike and declined to comment on the unions’ estimate of the potential November production impact. The dispute centres on differences in pay and benefits between union groups. Labour representatives are seeking equivalent benefits for employees regardless of union affiliation, while Antofagasta has said bargaining schedules have been separated since 2020 and wage adjustments have been negotiated at different times. The union estimate of a potential 50% decline in November production materially increases the supply significance of the Centinela strike compared with the initial work stoppage. However, the estimate has not been confirmed by Antofagasta, which continues to maintain its production guidance. The scale of any actual copper loss will therefore depend on the duration of the strike, the extent of disruption to mining and maintenance activities, and whether negotiations resume before November.

Magna Mining has approved the restart of its fully permitted Levack Mine in Ontario, Canada, following completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment that outlines 7.3 years of commercial production and estimated initial capital requirements of C$70.1 million. The PEA outlines average annual payable production of approximately 36.8 million lb of copper-equivalent over the commercial production period, with output comprising nickel, copper and precious metals. Magna is targeting the start of commercial production in mid-2028. The study estimates an after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of C$227.0 million, an after-tax IRR of 92.4%, and a payback period of 0.6 years under the base-case assumptions used in the PEA. The development plan involves restarting the existing underground operation and utilizing established mine infrastructure. Following board approval, Magna plans to advance detailed engineering, underground development and other activities required to support the proposed restart schedule. The PEA includes approximately 2.1 million short tons of Inferred Mineral Resources. Magna cautioned that the assessment is preliminary in nature and that the restart decision was not based on a feasibility study of Mineral Reserves demonstrating economic and technical viability. The board approval moves Levack from technical evaluation toward restart execution, with commercial production targeted for mid-2028 and initial capital estimated at C$70.1 million. The strong PEA economics indicate potentially attractive project returns under the study assumptions, but the inclusion of Inferred Mineral Resources and the absence of a feasibility-level reserve case mean execution and economic uncertainty remain material. Attention will now turn to detailed engineering, underground development and capital deployment as Magna advances toward the planned restart.