[SMM Analysis] Construction Steel Inventory Drawdown Slows Notably

Recently, several industry insiders revealed that multiple regions have issued window guidance for local small and medium-sized banks and licensed consumer finance companies, setting explicit quantitative indicators for the growth rate of loan volumes through lending assistance channels and business boundaries, while reiterating that the proportion of financing guarantee businesses must not exceed 25%. This move aims to push licensed institutions to return to self-operated businesses, solidify their independent risk control responsibilities, and reduce reliance on external platforms. This orientation continues the policy trajectory marked by intensive regulatory measures rolled out by financial authorities since 2025.

Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has released its H1 2026 performance forecast. Based on preliminary calculations, net profit for H1 2026 is expected to be approximately 152 million yuan. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is expected to be around -30 million yuan. Compared with -35 million yuan (after retrospective adjustment) in the same period last year, this represents a profit increase of about 5 million yuan YoY, a slight improvement. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company excluding non-recurring gains and losses for H1 2026 is expected to be around -169 million yuan.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release key economic data on July 15, including GDP growth for Q2 and H1, as well as data on industrial output, consumption, and investment. Economists participating in the CBN Chief Economists Survey projected an average 4.5% YoY GDP growth for Q2 2026. They believe that the “K-shaped divergence” in China’s economy has become more pronounced, the economy is in a period of replacing old growth drivers with new ones, and macro policies are expected to step up efforts to stabilize growth in H2. However, the release of new growth drivers is not enough to offset the waning of old drivers, which does not alter the fundamental pattern that China’s economy remains in the painful transition of replacing old growth drivers with new ones. Measures should be taken in advance to build up policy reserves, strengthen situation monitoring and risk early warning, and formulate contingency plans, so as to use policy foresight to hedge against uncertainties in the internal and external environment.