29. April 2026
In an increasingly fragmented global economy, gold is massively gaining focus as a neutral reserve asset. According to Deutsche Bank’s assessment, the precious metal is one of the main beneficiaries of global de-dollarization, even though the gold price is currently weakening.
More and more central banks—particularly in emerging markets—are using gold as a financial shield against geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and potential Western sanctions. This shift in national reserve policy is creating strong structural support for the gold price in the medium term.
Fundamental Data Underpins the System Transformation
Market data illustrates that these purchases are aimed at long-term transformation rather than short-term speculation. The share of the U.S. dollar in global currency reserves has declined from over 60% in the early 2000s to approximately 40% today. In turn, central banks have expanded their gold reserves by more than 225 million ounces since the 2008 financial crisis.
Based on this, Deutsche Bank outlines a scenario in which the gold share of global central bank reserves could rise from the current approximately 30% to 40%. A conceptual model calculation by the bank linked to this scenario—which explicitly does not represent an official price forecast—indicates that gold could reach $8,000 per ounce within five years in this case.
Broader Demand Base Supports the Market
The driving forces behind this development were confirmed last year by a World Gold Council survey. In it, central banks explicitly cited geopolitical and economic uncertainties as the primary reason for purchases. Particularly noteworthy is the regional expansion of demand: In addition to traditional major buyers such as China, Russia, India, and Turkey, more and more countries are acting on the buy side. Deutsche Bank explicitly mentions Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. This broader distribution creates a more stable, less concentrated demand base that structurally cushions market fluctuations.
Long-Term Trend Despite Current Gold Price Corrections
The current price development shows that even a strongly supported market is not a one-way street. Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained nearly 8%, but has come under pressure since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the gains the precious metal had built up since its record high in January have been erased.
Despite such short-term volatility, the fundamental picture for investors remains intact: If the transformation of the global reserve architecture continues, gold will establish itself far beyond its traditional function as crisis protection. It is maturing into a supporting pillar in the international monetary system that directly and sustainably benefits from the declining dominance of the U.S. dollar.
Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-facing-revaluation-deutsche-bank-outlines-8000-scenario/
