Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports Up 3% YoY in March, with Risk of Front-Loaded Demand Being Consumed in H2

Published: Apr 30, 2026 22:22

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According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip (tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports in March 2026 reached 278,200 mt, up 21% MoM and up 3% YoY.

SMM April 30, 2026:

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip (tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports in March 2026 reached 278,200 mt, up 21% MoM and up 3% YoY.

Trade mode, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports via processing trade with imported materials in March 2026 were approximately 43,000 mt, accounting for 15.4%; exports via processing trade with supplied materials were approximately 5,500 mt, accounting for 1.9%.

By country, the top five destinations for China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in March 2026 were the US (36,300 mt, 13.0%), Mexico (34,900 mt, 12.9%), Vietnam (22,400 mt, 8%), South Korea (20,100 mt, 7%), and Thailand (1.19 mt, 4.0%), with the remaining countries collectively accounting for approximately 55%. Notably, China's exports to the US climbed monthly from 15,000 mt in October last year to 36,000 mt in March this year, becoming the core incremental source driving the YoY and MoM double growth in March exports. The direct driver of this change was a supply-side incident: in Q4 2025, a North American plant of a leading plate/sheet and strip enterprise caught fire, causing a supply gap in can stock and automotive sheet. The plant is expected to resume production in June this year, and during this period, Chinese aluminum processing enterprises took over part of the redirected orders.

Since the Israel-Iran conflict, the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated, with insurance companies refusing to cover cargo entering or exiting the region. China's aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil orders involving the Middle East have been fully suspended, with some in-transit cargo returned or stranded at ports, making direct losses unavoidable. However, the geopolitical conflict has also reshaped global trade flows — European and some Asian buyers have turned to China for alternative supply, bringing export growth opportunities for domestic aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises. Overall, aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in 2026 are expected to show mild growth, with a conservative full-year increase of approximately 5-10% YoY. However, two important variables need additional consideration: first, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the energy crisis eases in the future, the current export-positive expectations driven by geopolitical tensions will tighten accordingly; second, in Q2, plate/sheet and strip exports can still maintain solid performance, benefiting from order transfers due to the overseas peer's fire and short-term redirection amid Middle East supply disruptions, but H2 will face headwinds from the front-loaded consumption of ex-China demand — some orders were released ahead of schedule to mitigate risks, and subsequent demand momentum may weaken.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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