The share of EQ copper cathode in imports continued to expand in Q1 2026. Following shares of 68.12% and 70.78% in January and February respectively, the EQ share further climbed to 73.53% in March. Looking at the seasonal charts from 2022 to 2026, March tends to be the annual peak for EQ share. This year's 73.53% not only exceeded the same period in 2024 and 2025, but also confirmed that under the reality of inverted SHFE/LME price ratio and import windows under pressure, EQ sources have further consolidated their position as the "main force" of China's copper cathode imports.
Supply side, the previously noted "African source diversion" phenomenon was confirmed in March data. As the US increased its stockpiling of global copper cathode resources, changes in the flow of African sources remain worth monitoring. Taking DRC as an example, its March supply rebounded from 64,900 mt in February to 93,100 mt, but still fell short of January's level. This indicates that although African sources previously affected by logistics and other factors have partially recovered, under the backdrop of global resource reallocation and long-term contract diversions by multinational giants, the incremental space for DRC copper cathode flowing into China is constrained, and the price spread between EQ and registered copper continues to narrow.
Unlike the supply situation of African sources, Russian and Kazakh sources saw significant growth in March. Breaking the previously relatively stable monthly import trend, Russia's copper cathode imports rose to 49,700 mt in March, a notable increase MoM, while Kazakhstan also rose to 13,900 mt. These additional EQ resources effectively filled the gap left by constrained African sources.
Considering that sulfur supply and shipping capacity issues in Africa have not been fully resolved, the incremental flow of African SX-EW copper to China is expected to remain limited going forward. However, given the overall limited imports, the share of EQ copper imports is expected to remain elevated.
