[SMM Analysis] Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Rose with Volatility on April 30

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward from the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened at 184,000 yuan/mt today, briefly dipped to 182,500 yuan/mt after opening, then rebounded and stabilized above the average price line. Around midday, bulls increased open interest to push prices higher, and the afternoon session fluctuated upward at highs. Late in the session, prices further surged to 189,500 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 189,100 yuan/mt, up 5.07%, with open interest increasing by 10,683 lots.

In April, China's lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up. Entering May, although Zimbabwean lithium concentrates exports remain restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory can still support normal production for the month. China's overall lithium carbonate supply maintained stable operations, with total production in May expected to edge up approximately 3% MoM.

Spot market, upstream quotes stayed high, with weak willingness to sell on spot orders and a clear intention to hold prices firm. Downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and market inquiries and transactions remained relatively sluggish. Today's sharp price rise may also be related to the market's early pricing-in of tighter Q2 supply expectations and increased open interest positioning in far-month contracts.

Looking ahead, supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe's export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables. Demand side, focus should be on whether May new energy auto sales data meets expectations and the pace at which LFP producers' capacity expansion boosts raw material demand. Overall, given that supply-side constraints have not materially eased and demand expectations still provide support, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the near term.