China's manganese market showed clear divergence: EMM softened from highs with prices pulling back, while battery-grade manganese sulphate maintained strong cost support, and market opinions on May's outlook became increasingly divided.

EMM: Shifting from Stable to Weak, Prices Entering a Downward Trajectory

EMM ended its previous firm stance with prices pulling back slightly, and traders turned cautious. On the supply side, production operated normally, manganese ore and sulphuric acid prices flattened, cost support weakened, and producers lacked confidence to hold prices firm. Demand remained sluggish: steel mill tenders decreased with obvious efforts to push for lower prices, new energy procurement was cautious, rigid demand was insufficient, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Combined with the sentiment to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, EMM still has room to pull back in the short term, with bearish sentiment intensifying.

Manganese Sulphate: Tight Spot Cargo + High Costs, Firm Tone Hard to Change

Battery-grade manganese sulphate moved sideways this week with an overall stable tone, but spot cargo circulation remained tight, with some enterprises' inventories falling below safety levels. Upstream manganese ore quotes stayed firm, sulphuric acid prices rose again (reaching 2,000 yuan/mt in April), freight costs stayed high, and comprehensive cost pressure stayed high, leaving producers no room for concessions. On the demand side, long-term contracts were sufficient while spot orders were sluggish. Major producers locked in May incremental volumes in advance. With tight spot cargo and strong cost support, manganese sulphate is expected to retain upside momentum going forward.

Other Manganese Products: Mn3O4 Weakened, EMD Held Stable, LMO Passively Followed Upward

• Mn3O4: Dragged down by the EMM pullback, prices weakened slightly. Downstream LMO rigid demand was mediocre, with weak restocking willingness.
• EMD: Supply and demand were balanced, costs stabilized, prices held steady for now, with strong wait-and-see sentiment.
• LMO: Followed lithium carbonate slightly upward, but demand was weak with poor price transmission. Transactions were mainly small rigid-demand orders.

Market Outlook: May Manganese Market "A Tale of Ice and Fire"

In the short term, EMM weakness is expected to continue, with focus on steel mill resumption and raw material manganese ore prices; manganese sulphate's firm tone is hard to change, and sulphur and sulphuric acid prices along with May major producer order settlements will determine upside room. Divergence within the manganese industry chain is intensifying, with structural opportunities focusing on battery-grade manganese salts.