29 Apr 2026, 04:54 AM'
- Gold steadies near an April low ahead of the Fed decision.
- Oil and Iran tensions keep inflation risks in sharp focus.
- Powell’s comments may shape bullion’s next near-term move.
Gold held broadly steady on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, with the metal pinned near its lowest level since early April by a stronger dollar, elevated oil prices and stalled diplomacy over Iran.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,598.45 an ounce in early trade, after falling to its weakest level since April 2 in the previous session.
US gold futures for June delivery were also little changed, rising 0.1% to $4,612.10.
The market’s hesitation reflects a difficult balance for bullion.
Gold is still benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, but that support has been offset by a renewed rise in oil prices, which is feeding inflation concerns and weakening the case for any near-term easing from the Fed.
As a result, traders have become more cautious about pushing prices higher before hearing how Powell frames the inflation outlook and the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
Fed outlook takes centre stage
Investors widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting later on Wednesday.
That means the emphasis will fall squarely on Powell’s tone and whether he signals any growing concern that higher energy prices could delay rate cuts.
Reuters reported this week that central banks were taking centre stage as inflation data tested market expectations for policy easing, with oil-driven price pressure again becoming a key variable.
That backdrop matters because gold has increasingly traded less like a pure safe-haven asset and more like an interest-rate-sensitive instrument.
If Powell suggests the Fed is prepared to stay on hold for longer, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar could put further pressure on bullion.
By contrast, any hint that the central bank is willing to look through the latest oil shock could give the metal some relief.
Iran conflict and oil keep pressure on inflation
The geopolitical backdrop remains tense.
Efforts to end the Iran conflict were described as being at an impasse after President Donald Trump signalled dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest proposal.
That has kept oil prices under upward pressure as traders worry about supply disruption and the broader consequences of instability in the Middle East.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil prices closed up nearly 3% as persistent concern over supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz outweighed other market developments.
The World Bank also said energy prices could surge 24% in 2026 to their highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even if the most acute disruption from the Middle East conflict fades in May.
For gold, that creates a paradox: geopolitical stress supports haven demand, but the associated rise in oil also strengthens inflation expectations and reduces the likelihood of lower interest rates.
Near-term tone remains fragile
Analysts say that leaves gold vulnerable in the near term.
Standard Chartered said this week that the metal looked fragile in the short run, even though structural support from geopolitical tension, tariffs and trade uncertainty should help it regain footing over time.
Reuters’ latest poll also suggested the longer-term bull case remains intact, with gold expected to average $4,916 an ounce in 2026 despite the recent setback.
For now, however, the market is in wait-and-see mode.
Bullion is close enough to recent lows to attract bargain hunters, but not yet supported by a clear enough macro signal to break higher.
Until Powell speaks and markets get a cleaner read on the Fed’s reaction to energy-driven inflation, gold is likely to remain trapped between haven demand and rate pressure.
Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/29/gold-at-april-lows-will-feds-next-move-spark-a-comeback/
