SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.1
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,893 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,903 yuan/mt and a low of 2,851 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,859 yuan/mt, down 46 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 9,670 lots to 314,000 lots. The market saw continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with alumina futures fluctuating notably. On one hand, geopolitical factors caused wild swings in ocean freight rates for bauxite on the raw material side, and some overseas mines indicated they would control shipments. Meanwhile, new capacity in Guangxi is about to be commissioned, which will intensify the alumina surplus. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA5 (2,835.60), MA10 (2,819.20), and MA30 (2,795.97), providing certain bottom support for prices. At the same time, the MACD indicator DIF (15.44) crossed above DEA (10.85), with the bullish crossover at low levels continuing and the histogram at 9.18. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts and commissioning plans for new capacity.
Industry Updates:
1) According to an SMM survey, a new alumina refinery in Guangxi is preparing for trial production recently, with new capacity of 2.4 million mt, and is expected to reach full production in Q2 2026. According to SMM statistics, its current bauxite inventory exceeds 1 million mt.
Ore:As of March 6, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $62.26/mt, up $0.14/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $37.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $62/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $60/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $55/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $47/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $59/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $70.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $69.5/mt, flat from last Friday. Domestic ore side, according to an SMM survey, domestic ore production and shipments were normal, with prices under continued negotiation. Imported ore side, affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices rose, and the latest ocean freight rate had risen to $29/wmt, up $5.5/wmt WoW. According to an SMM survey, some mines had controlled shipments, with no new offers emerging for now, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Traders only offered sporadic quotes, with prices rising from earlier levels. Guinea bauxite with a grade of 45/3 was quoted at $65/mt, but downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of price increases and currently found it difficult to accept quotes of $63/mt. SMM will continue to monitor production, shipment conditions, and price trends of mines in and outside China.
Spot Price:As of March 9, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,655.22 yuan/mt, up 5.91 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,601.80 yuan/mt, up 8.14 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,658.13 yuan/mt, up 5.12 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,646.69 yuan/mt, up 5.57 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,729.00 yuan/mt, up 8.06 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,700.95 yuan/mt, up 5.95 yuan/mt WoW.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on March 9, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 349.78 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:Data on March 9 showed that total registered alumina warrants rose, decreasing by 13 mt from the previous trading day to 337,200 mt. By region, total registered alumina warrants in Shandong, Henan, and Gansu were all flat from the previous trading day, at 17,700 mt, 6,011 mt, and 36,400 mt respectively. Guangxi's total registered alumina warrants increased by 2,409 mt to 20,700 mt, while Xinjiang's total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,422 mt to 256,400 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was $26.55/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.94. This translated to a selling price at mainstream Chinese ports of approximately 2,686.83 yuan/mt, which was 31.61 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed.
Summary: As of last Thursday, the domestic alumina market continued the prior destocking trend, but total inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern had not been reversed. The overall industry operating rate was stable, but regional production saw minor adjustments: some enterprises operated at reduced loads or underwent phased maintenance, while some previously under maintenance ramped up operating capacity, creating a certain offset and driving the overall operating rate slightly lower, with weekly alumina production down 1,000 mt WoW. Inventory side, aluminum smelter raw material inventory was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, as enterprises continued to consume previously high inventory levels, reducing in-factory alumina inventory by 51,000 mt and gradually returning to relatively reasonable levels. Due to earlier production cuts at some alumina refineries, they were still consuming their own inventory, with alumina refinery in-factory inventory down 10,000 mt, showing a slight destocking trend. Warrant inventory decreased by 14,000 mt, mainly due to the cancellation of some expired warrants after contract expiry. Post-holiday shipments gradually recovered, with logistics bottlenecks increasing somewhat, and in-transit and platform inventory increased by 28,000 mt. Overall, national alumina inventory continued a slight destocking trend, but the pace of decline slowed down. Close attention still needs to be paid to changes in industry operating rates and dynamic adjustments in enterprise operations. It is expected that as the industry operating rate sees a slight rebound next week, inventory may shift toward a slight inventory buildup pattern.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
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