SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.6
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures AO2605 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,862 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,755 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,822 yuan/mt, up 32 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 3,878 lots to 356,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA5 (2,803.40), MA10 (2,787.80), and MA30 (2,777.73), providing some upward momentum, but upside was limited with overhead resistance still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (10.1) crossed above DEA (2.2), with the low-level golden cross continuing and the histogram at 15.8, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.
Industry Updates:
1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 4, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB East Australia, or $313/mt FOB Western Australia, for April shipment, with the source selected by the seller. The previous transaction was on February 3, at $310/mt FOB Western Australia, for March shipment.
Ore:As of February 5, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.01/mt, down $0.41/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $60.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $59.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $59.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt WoW. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore production lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, current market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends.
Spot Price:As of February 5, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.42 yuan/mt, down 0.45 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.3 yuan/mt, down 0.47 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,616.39 yuan/mt, down 1.52 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,603.42 yuan/mt, down 0.81 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,696.75 yuan/mt, up 3.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,673.04 yuan/mt, down 0.96 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on February 5, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 172.58 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.
Warrant Daily Report:On February 5, the total registered alumina warrants increased by 19,200 mt from the previous trading day to 215,600 mt. In the Shandong region, alumina warrants increased by 2,691 mt from the previous trading day to 10,500 mt. In the Henan region, alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1,203 mt. In the Guangxi region, alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 7,505 mt. In the Gansu region, alumina warrants increased by 7,215 mt from the previous trading day to 24,600 mt. In the Xinjiang region, alumina warrants increased by 9,343 mt from the previous trading day to 171,800 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of February 5, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.35/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.96. This translated to a selling price at major Chinese ports of approximately 2,679.37 yuan/mt, which was 59.95 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed.
Summary: Overall, alumina inventory in China continued to rebound this week, and the oversupply pattern persisted. Alumina refineries across regions gradually resumed production, driving up the overall industry operating rate, with weekly production increasing by 11,000 mt. Inventory side, aluminum smelter raw material inventory increased by 18,000 mt on a weekly basis due to earlier spot cargo arrivals. Alumina refinery in-factory inventory saw a slight WoW increase of 10,000 mt across the industry, as production remained relatively stable and daily shipments were maintained. Warrant inventory continued its upward trend, as favorable futures performance in the earlier period drove active pricing-based shipments to delivery warehouses, pushing inventory higher. Recent shipments remained stable, with long-term contract delivery volumes showing relatively small fluctuations, only slightly increasing by 2,000 mt. Overall, the current inventory buildup pace has returned to previous levels, with overall industry inventory still at elevated levels and sustained market pressure. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions at alumina refineries. The industry operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week, with inventory continuing to accumulate mildly.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
