SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.2
Futures:Last Friday's night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,767 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,836 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,818 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 17,800 lots to 425,000 lots, indicating cautious market trading. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA5 (2,789.40), MA10 (2,746.30), and MA30 (2,758.17), providing some upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (2.91) crossed above DEA (-4.6), with the low-level golden cross continuing and the histogram at 15.02. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
Industry Updates:
1)In January 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased 1.78% MoM and 2.6% YoY. As of month-end January, nationwide existing capacity was approximately 110.32 million mt, with operating capacity down 1.78% MoM and 3.56% YoY.
2)On January 30, 2026, Chalco, a publicly listed firm under Chalco Group, issued an announcement regarding the planned acquisition of equity in a Brazilian aluminum company, aimed at enhancing resource security and optimizing industrial layout. The transaction will be conducted through a prudent and market-oriented approach. As a core holding enterprise under Chalco Group, Chalco possesses a complete entire industry chain. It plans to establish a joint venture in Brazil with Rio Tinto International Holdings Limited through its wholly-owned subsidiary Chalco Hong Kong Limited, and through this joint venture, acquire 68.596% equity in Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN) held by Votorantim. Upon completion, MRN will become a controlling subsidiary consolidated into Chalco's financial statements. This transaction introduces Rio Tinto, a partner with extensive international mining experience. Rio Tinto is a global comprehensive mineral resource supplier and one of the world's largest resource extraction and mineral product suppliers. The two parties have maintained a strong cooperative relationship over the years, achieving collaborative results in multiple areas including the Simandou iron ore project.
3)According to market sources, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN), approximately 80% owned by Press Metal Group, is constructing an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1.2 million mt in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The project is expected to gradually commence production by year-end 2026 or early 2027.
4)The Indonesian government is preparing to establish a new state-owned enterprise named Perminas, set up by the Daya Anagata Nusantara investment management agency, which will be responsible for the operational management of strategic mineral mines. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that Perminas will handle strategic commodities such as rare earth metals and other critical minerals, without specifying the types of minerals. When asked whether Perminas would soon take over existing mines, Bahlil said the government would closely monitor subsequent developments.
Ore:As of January 30, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $64.38/mt, down $0.87/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $39/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $61/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $62.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $57.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $61/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $73.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply and prices under pressure. Imported ore side, intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers recently declined from earlier levels, with current market transactions sluggish. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines production, port shipments, and price trends.
Spot Prices:As of January 30, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,622.71 yuan/mt, down 2.56 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,550.71 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,620.79 yuan/mt, down 1.06 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,606.74 yuan/mt, down 0.82 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,698.06 yuan/mt, down 6.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,680.59 yuan/mt, down 11.07 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on January 30, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 139.29 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report: On January 30, total registered alumina warrants increased by 9,583 mt from the previous trading day to 171,100 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants increased by 2,402 mt to 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants increased by 6,300 mt to 16,500 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 3,283 mt to 139,300 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of January 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $308/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.97. This translated to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,663.86 yuan/mt, slightly above the SMM alumina index price by 41.15 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed.
Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have initiated maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of varying scales, leading to a decline in industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, due to the increase in enterprises undergoing maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprise raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly driven by continued shipments under long-term contracts. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed compared to earlier periods, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If supply-side contraction does not continue, inventory is expected to maintain a slight accumulation trend next week, and spot alumina prices will remain in the doldrums.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
