Macro Stalemate Combined with High-Price Suppression: SHFE Tin Weakened Then Rebounded, with Limited Pre-Holiday Stockpiling [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, April 24, 2026

This morning, the tin market in and outside China exhibited an overall fluctuating trend. The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2605) opened weaker in the early session, dipping to a low of 389,050 yuan/mt intraday, before rebounding in a fluctuating manner to close the morning session at 392,220 yuan/mt, up 0.48%. LME side, LME three-month tin moved sideways in tandem, temporarily quoted at $50,325/mt, down slightly by 0.04%.

The current macro market focus remained on the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which was in an overall stalemate. According to ex-China media sources, Iran recently conveyed a new negotiation framework through a third party. The proposal was reportedly divided into three phases, focusing sequentially on ending the conflict, resolving the Strait of Hormuz passage issue, and nuclear-related negotiations. Sources cited by ex-China media noted that the initial proposal would prioritize the strait crisis and the lifting of the blockade, with the hope of using this as a catalyst to achieve a long-term ceasefire or even a permanent resolution of the conflict. Although all parties continued to engage in dialogue and exchange proposals, substantive progress on the ground would still take time. Macro sentiment had yet to form a clear directional signal, and market participants largely maintained a wait-and-see stance.

Spot market side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, the spot market showed no notable uptick in activity. Holders demonstrated moderate willingness to make shipments, and spot premiums were mostly adjusted downward. However, as futures absolute prices remained at elevated levels, downstream enterprise purchase willingness remained limited. Market participants today mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach toward futures movements, and concentrated pre-holiday stockpiling had yet to materialize. All parties shifted their focus to price developments later this week to assess appropriate buying opportunities.

Overall, today's tin prices reflected the market tug-of-war under geopolitical stalemate and high-price suppression. In the short term, communication progress among ex-China stakeholders and actual navigation conditions through the strait remained the core variables on the macro front. Spot side, pre-holiday stockpiling willingness was constrained by elevated absolute prices, resulting in mediocre performance. Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term, and close attention should be paid to the follow-through of actual downstream buying later this week and the development of futures movements.