Futures-Spot Resonance Boosted Raw Material Prices, Stainless Steel Smelting Profits Remained Robust [SMM Analysis]

SMM News Flash:  [Rebar] Rebar export FOB offers remained stable today. Market traders reported that inquiries were relatively mediocre and transactions remained weak, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market participants. [Steel Billet] Billet export offers were in the doldrums today, quoted at 473-476 USD/tonne. Market feedback indicated that current trader offers were on the high side, while overseas billet export offers declined, weakening China's competitiveness and resulting in mediocre inquiries and poor transaction performance.  [HRC] Sheet & plate export prices dropped1-2 USD/tonne day on day today, with HRC transaction prices at 496-50 USD/tonne. Market feedback showed that inspection rates at North China ports had increased recently, causing some unofficial quoted sources to shift to relatively less stringent ports for port departures, and corresponding price spreads narrowed. Regarding the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, some export participants consulted today reported no notable increase in inquiries yet, and buyers may also be waiting to see subsequent risks.ently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] A 0.40 INR/kWh industrial power tariff increase in Chhattisgarh, effective 1 Jul 2026, will raise induction furnace billet costs by ~3.17–3.80 USD/tonne and re-rolling (rebar/wire rod) costs by ~0.51–0.63 USD/tonne. Weak monsoon-season demand limits cost pass-through, with billet margins at risk of erosion by 2.64–3.69 USD/tonne. [SEA] Currently, construction project operating rates in Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are at a seasonal low, severely suppressing rigid demand for long steel products such as rebar and wire rod. End-user buying sentiment is weak, the pace of overall inventory destocking is slow, and local major mills' rebar EXW prices are at 520–535 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, with the release of information on US-Iran negotiations, news of the Strait of Hormuz unblocking has sparked expectations among Southeast Asian buyers of lower freight rates, creating a mindset of buying on dips and waiting on the sidelines. However, according to SMM's latest survey, even if the agreement can be signed smoothly on the 19th, the actual unblocking of the strait will still require a buffer period. Freight rates are expected to be difficult to lower in the short term and will mainly fluctuate at high levels. [Taiwan, China] This week, Feng Hsin, a leading long steel producer in Taiwan, kept its long steel prices stable, halting a three-week downward streak. Specifically, the rebar price stabilized at 583 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 18400 TWD/tonne), while the structural steel price held steady at 792 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 25000 TWD/tonne). This price stability indicates that mills are ready to accept new orders as the market gradually bottoms out.

The most-traded iron ore futures contract on the DCE, I2609, experienced weak fluctuations today and ultimately closed at 762 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous trading session

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On June 16, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 13,990 mt, down 1,000 mt day on day, or -6.8%, with Gregorian calendar YoY at -9.45% and lunar calendar YoY at +46.65%