BC Copper Bottomed Out with a Slight Gain as U.S.-Iran Talks Faced Uncertainty [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 90,990 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to probe 92,500 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually shifted lower to touch 90,510 yuan/mt after the daytime session opened, before fluctuating higher and ultimately closing at 91,120 yuan/mt, up 0.13%. Open interest stood at 5,690 lots, down 558 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 5,958 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. Macro perspective, Trump announced an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement with no clear deadline, and said new rounds of peace talks could resume as early as Friday; Iran stated it had never requested a ceasefire, and geopolitical uncertainties persisted. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals remained steady, while domestic smelters undergoing maintenance led to tight domestic supply; demand side, copper prices fluctuated at highs, downstream purchasing remained cautious, with only rigid demand restocking maintained.

SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,780 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 91,120 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 102,965 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -185, remaining inverted but narrowing notably from the previous day.