Uncertain Ceasefire Prospects Put Futures Under Pressure, Spot Market Awaits Lower Levels to Follow [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, April 23, 2026

This morning, the tin market futures in and outside China were under pressure. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2605 contract held up well during the night session, then opened at 395,100 yuan/mt in the morning session. Futures subsequently pulled back under pressure, closing the morning session at 386,700 yuan/mt, down 1.26%. LME side, London three-month tin was tentatively quoted at $49,700/mt, down 1.77%.

The current macro market remained affected by geopolitical tensions, with ceasefire prospects becoming uncertain again. On one hand, the passage deadlock on the key shipping lane continued. Iran stated that it would not reopen the key shipping lane until the blockade on its ports was lifted. On the other hand, the US State Department issued an official notice, requiring its citizens stranded in Middle East conflict-related areas to evacuate immediately via commercial flights or overland routes, given the partial reopening of local airspace. The evacuation notice, coupled with reports of frequent localized conflicts in surrounding areas over the past two days, intensified market concerns over an escalation of geopolitical tensions.

As futures prices pulled back, the spot market overall adopted a wait-and-see stance. After the morning opening, the market saw some inquiry activity, but actual transactions remained mediocre, dominated by rigid-demand orders. Facing the downward trend in futures, downstream enterprises showed no significant release of purchase willingness, with the market broadly choosing to wait and see, holding off decisions until prices further declined and stabilized.

Overall, driven by risk-averse sentiment stemming from uncertain ceasefire prospects and the evacuation notice, tin prices were under pressure today. In the short term, subsequent moves by parties involved in the Middle East situation remain a variable influencing the direction of futures.