Crude Oil Rose for Three Consecutive Days, Base Metals Fell Broadly, LME Copper, LME Tin, and Polysilicon Led Declines, COMEX/SHFE Silver and Palladium Fell Over 2% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM April 23 News:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging down slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.42%. SHFE lead dropped 0.84%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.12%. SHFE tin fell 1.26%, and SHFE nickel declined 0.5%.

In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.49%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.04%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.76%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.38%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both gaining less than 0.4%, and stainless steel down 0.54%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.32%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.82%.

Overseas base metals, as of 11:51, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 1.7%. LME aluminum fell 1.12%, LME lead declined 0.84%, and LME zinc fell 0.81%. LME tin dropped 1.77%. LME nickel fell 1.38%.

Precious metals, as of 11:51, COMEX gold fell 0.65%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 2.46%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 2.07%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.67%, closing at 2,221.7 points.

As of 11:51 on April 23, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot Prices and Fundamentals

Copper:Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,210 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro Front

China:

[Xi Jinping recently issued important instructions emphasizing the need to further summarize and apply the "Yiwu Development Experience" and explore paths of high-quality development suited to local conditions]Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently issued important instructions noting that Yiwu's small commodities had forged a large market and built a major industry, forming the "Yiwu Development Experience," which represented a successful practice of developing county-level economies based on local conditions. Xi Jinping emphasized that, in conjunction with the learning and education campaign on establishing and practicing the correct view of political achievements, the "Yiwu Development Experience" should be further summarized and applied to guide regions across the country to leverage their own resource endowments, respect the pioneering spirit of grassroots communities and the people, pursue reform and innovation, take concrete actions, and sustain long-term efforts to explore paths of high-quality development suited to their respective conditions, so as to better serve and integrate into the overall national development landscape. During his tenure in Zhejiang, Xi Jinping visited Yiwu for surveys on multiple occasions and summarized and promoted the "Yiwu Development Experience." Over the years, Yiwu has continued to write new chapters in the story of "small commodities, big market." Currently, the number of business entities in its small commodities market has exceeded 1.26 million, with trade links to more than 230 countries and regions. In 2025, its foreign trade export value ranked first among all counties (cities and districts) nationwide. (Xinhua News Agency)

[ PBOC reverse repo operations achieved zero net injection and zero net withdrawal on the day ]The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero net injection and zero net withdrawal were achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data)

US dollar:

As of 11:51, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 98.7. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the US Fed would have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the war-triggered energy shock further intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17–21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in previous surveys.

A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he seeks to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report also noted that Warsh opposed using forward guidance as a policy tool and opposed publishing economic projections. (Jin10 Data)

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed support for Fed Chairman Powell's plan — that Powell would temporarily remain as Fed Chairman if his successor had not been confirmed by the Senate when his term expires in May. Hassett said on Wednesday: "I think that is the appropriate legal understanding." Trump has nominated Warsh to replace Powell, but Republicans currently do not have enough votes to advance the nomination from the Senate Banking Committee to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. Republican Senator Tom Tillis said he would hold off on voting until the Department of Justice stops what he called a "bogus" investigation into cost overruns in the renovation project of the US Fed building. Hassett said of Warsh: "We are very confident that he will become chairman at the appropriate time. I believe there will be discussions about how to move forward." (Jin10 Data)

On the data front:

Data to be released today included US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for April, US S&P Global Services PMI flash for April, UK public sector net borrowing for March, UK Manufacturing PMI flash for April, UK Services PMI flash for April, UK CBI industrial orders balance for April, France Manufacturing PMI flash for April, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI flash for April, and Germany Manufacturing PMI flash for April, among others. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce held its 4th regular press conference in April. ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon took place at the US State Department.

On crude oil:

As of 11:51, oil prices in both markets extended the rally from the previous two trading days, with WTI up 1.85% and Brent up 1.48%. Recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East fueled market concerns over supply, supporting oil prices.

Wall Street Insights noted that Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan as mediator, saying US-Iran negotiations could resume as early as Friday, but Iran subsequently denied the possibility of talks on Friday. Iran's president said he "welcomes dialogue and agreements" but also criticized Trump for "contradictions between words and actions." Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a comprehensive ceasefire would be impossible without the lifting of blockades. (Wall Street Insights)

In an interview with Fox News, Trump said reports about a 3-to-5-day window for extending the ceasefire were fake. Regarding Iran's seizure of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said they were not US ships and that he would continue to monitor developments. On when to end the war, Trump said there was no timetable and he was in no rush. "People say I want to get this done quickly because of the midterm elections, that's not true," Trump said, adding that the administration wanted to secure a good deal for Americans. Trump also said that blockades scared them more than bombing, that they had been bombed for many years, but what they hated was the blockade. Once those oil wells shut down, sometimes they are shut down permanently. Trump expected that when negotiations resumed, Iran's foreign minister would still be there. Earlier, Fox News and Axios both reported that Trump extended the ceasefire deadline by 3 to 5 days rather than indefinitely. In response, White House Press Secretary Leavitt also issued a statement saying that Trump had not set a deadline for the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, and that reports of giving Iran 3 to 5 days to respond were not true. (Jin10 Data)

Spot Market Overview:

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