Price Upside as Core Driver: March Manganese Ore Imports Showed Significant YoY and MoM Growth [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China's total manganese ore imports in March 2026 were 3.1837 million mt, up 38.03% MoM and up 64.86% YoY. Total manganese ore imports from January to March 2026 were approximately 8.9327 million mt, up 3.0717 million mt YoY (approximately 5.8611 million mt imported from January to March 2025), up 52.41% YoY. In March, imports by origin were: Australian ore 395,700 mt (down 4.2% MoM), South African ore 1.8537 million mt (up 87.16% MoM), Gabonese ore 452,300 mt (up 20.58% MoM), Ghanaian ore 196,700 mt (down 27.26% MoM), Brazilian ore 94,800 mt (down 4.91% MoM), and Myanmar ore 53,900 mt (up 7.99% MoM).

March manganese ore imports increased MoM: the core reason was rising manganese ore prices in the China market, combined with higher overseas supply costs, recovering demand, and other multiple factors, driving a significant surge in imports. Cost side was the core logic behind this round of increases. As the world's largest manganese ore supplier, South Africa's new fiscal year electricity cost hike was approved, with a 8.76% increase in April 2026. Rigid costs in mining, ore beneficiation, and other stages rose, significantly strengthening the willingness to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, ongoing US-Iran tensions pushed up international oil prices, not only directly increasing diesel consumption costs at mines, but also driving up global ocean freight rates and war risk premiums, raising CIF prices of imported manganese ore. Regarding overseas market offers, overseas miners collectively raised offers in April, with the highest offer for South African semi-carbonate ore reaching $4.75/mtu. May offers continued to rise, with forward cost pressure continuing to transmit to the China spot market. Demand side showed a differentiated recovery pattern. South China side, Yunnan production areas are about to enter the rainy season, and hydropower cost advantages will emerge, with alloy plant operating rates expected to gradually rebound. Northern producers were less affected by electricity prices, with controllable cost pressure and weak willingness to control or cut production, maintaining stable rigid demand for manganese ore. At month-end in March, the industry association circulated news of self-disciplinary production cuts, but this was a non-mandatory initiative, and its constraining impact on March manganese ore was relatively limited. In addition, Exxaro completed the acquisition of Tshipi Borwa, the world's fourth-largest manganese mine, with shipments to China increasing significantly. Gabon's railway transport capacity recovered, and shipments increased.