Metals Fell Broadly, Lithium Carbonate Dropped Nearly 4%, SHFE Silver and SHFE Aluminum Led Declines, Alumina and Polysilicon Rose Over 2% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM April 21 News:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.64%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.45%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.76%. SHFE tin dropped 0.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.69%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.49%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.86%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.19%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.64%, rebar rose 0.76%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.87%, stainless steel fell 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.49%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.96%.

Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc fell 0.78%. LME tin dropped 0.68%. LME nickel fell 0.6%.

Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 1.32%, COMEX silver fell 0.21%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.76%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 2.7%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.18%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.78%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract edged down 0.01%, closing at 2,114.1 points.

As of 11:40 on April 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper:Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 24-day consecutive decline......

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Output Up 4.6% YoY in Q1]According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added output of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Specifically, the petrochemical and chemical industry's value added was up 7.4% YoY, and the non-ferrous metals industry's value added was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through volume replacement. Meanwhile, the green building materials industry saw steady revenue growth, with the number of certified green building material products increasing 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, as China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product was launched globally for the first time, and is expected to be extensively applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News)

[MIIT: Fully Activate Innovation Engines, Accelerate Frontier Material Deployment and Key Material Breakthroughs]Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, detailed implementation of the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries was carried out, with focused efforts to promote capacity structure optimization and upgrading. The raw materials industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation and a stronger industrial foundation. Going forward, MIIT will thoroughly implement the deployments outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to the combination of "consolidating fundamentals" and "fostering new growth," and strengthen overall planning and policy supply. On one hand, efforts will focus on solidifying the foundation for traditional industry upgrading, promoting optimization of existing capacity and green and safe transformation; on the other hand, innovation engines will be fully activated to accelerate frontier material deployment and key material breakthroughs, providing more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jin10 Data)

[MIIT: Industrial Robot Production Up 33.2% YoY in Q1, Drones, AI Glasses and Other Products Increasingly Diversified]This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated their application in the electronics and consumer goods industries. End-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diversified, with industrial robot and integrated circuit production up 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News)

[PBOC Achieved Net Injection of 4 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today]The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 4 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data)

US dollar:

As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.11% at 98.16. The US Congress was set to hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh was to pledge to lawmakers his strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh stated that interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and that monetary policy should not be used as a tool for short-term political objectives. He also emphasized that the US Fed's credibility stems from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to diverse opinions, and that politicians expressing views on interest rates does not pose a real threat. On the contrary, it is the US Fed's own discipline and rigor that sustains its independent status. He stressed that price stability is the US Fed's talisman and pledged to assume full responsibility for it, "making no excuses and passing no blame." Warsh also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries, arguing that it should not extend its reach into fiscal or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee was to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21.

Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh believes that upcoming productivity growth may give the US Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity enables low-inflation economic growth. However, economist Ed Yardeni, who also expects the economy to benefit from technological advances this decade, disagrees that such an outcome would justify lowering interest rates. Yardeni wrote: "While we share Warsh's optimism on productivity, we have fundamentally different views on what this outcome means for monetary policy." Yardeni argues that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest, or R*, the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He wrote: "If the US Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it fuels financial speculation and instability." (Jin Shi Data)

On other currencies:

The exact timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike remains uncertain, with significant uncertainty. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Akira Otani said a rate hike in July remains possible. The economist wrote in a research note: "By then, all the data needed to assess the impact of high oil prices on the economy, wages, and prices will be available." The Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged this month but may lower its economic growth expectations and raise its FY2026 inflation forecast to reflect heightened tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Otani added that the Bank of Japan may consider the uncertainty surrounding this outlook to be high. (Jinshi Data)

Data:

Today's scheduled releases include US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventories MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany April ZEW economic sentiment index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March claimant count, Switzerland March trade balance, and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index. In addition, attention should be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and ECB President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open in China.

Crude oil:

As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.58%. Signs of resumed negotiations between Iran and the US boosted market sentiment, while international oil prices slid further on expectations of easing tensions. (Wallstreetcn)

Wallstreetcn noted that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiating delegation to Islamabad on the night of April 20. According to Xinhua, citing the US Axios website, US Vice President Vance was expected to depart for the Pakistani capital on the morning of April 21 Eastern Time, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner also heading to join the negotiations. (Wallstreetcn)

The market is still waiting to see whether some form of consultation will take place in Islamabad. Investors generally expect that the likelihood of reaching some preliminary agreement is higher than that of a comprehensive deal. Currently, the market is mainly reacting to a sentiment shift from optimism to concern. However, it is widely believed that the most severe phase of the crisis and the accompanying energy supply disruptions may have passed. (Jinshi Data)

Spot market overview:

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