Fed Likely to Maintain Rates, Small Chance of Cuts by June and July

Published: Apr 17, 2026 21:36

Save

April 17 news, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 99.5% (unchanged from this morning). The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 7.1%, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged is 92.4%, and the probability that the interest rates will increase by 25 basis point is 0.5% (1.4%, 98%, and 0.5% respectively this morning). The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by July is 18.1%, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged is 80.6%, and the probability that the interest rates will increase by 25 basis point is 0.4% (9.7%, 89.7%, and 0.5% resp

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

34 mins ago

A union in Peru's Moquegua region has launched a strike, potentially affecting shipments from multiple copper mines.

According to SMM, the JFR union in Peru's Moquegua region has started a strike, which is expected to delay shipments from the Quellaveco mine and Grupo México's mines. Moreover, the strike may spread to the Matarani port in Arequipa; if it affects this port, it will further impact the shipment pace of other major mines such as Las Bambas, Cerro Verde, and Constancia. It remains to be confirmed whether the strike will extend to Arequipa, and further developments will be reported separately.

34 mins ago

2 hours ago

[SMM Computing Power Flash] Enterprise H100 Scattered Rental Inquiries Surface; Small Orders of 2–3 Units Hard to Match amid Supply Clustering Trend; Current Monthly Rent Quoted at 75,000 Yuan, Up over 80% in Six Months.

SMM has learned that the current H100 computing power rental market is dominated by cluster supply, with the minimum lease typically starting at 12 units and mainstream rental scales ranging from 32 to 64 units. Demand for small-batch scattered rentals of 2-3 units is relatively hard to match. A business head at a computing power rental provider disclosed that the current monthly rental quote for an H100 eight-GPU server stands at about 75,000 yuan/unit (including tax, hosting, electricity and maintenance), significantly up from the level of approximately over 40,000 yuan/unit half a year ago, an increase of more than 80%. The person noted that computing rental prices see significant day-to-day fluctuations, "Unlike stocks, it changes every day," and year-end prices are hard to predict, advising to inquire again when closer to the demand period. SMM previously reported in a flash that another intelligent computing company quoted a monthly rent for spot H100 at about 76,000 yuan, requiring a minimum one-year contract, largely in line with the pricing level in this inquiry.

2 hours ago

3 hours ago

Market Longs and Shorts Intertwine, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend [SMM Zinc Brief]

[Market bulls and bears interweave, SHFE zinc maintains fluctuating trend] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,555 yuan/mt, quickly touched a high of 24,560 yuan/mt after the opening, then as bulls cut positions, the price drifted lower and dipped to a low of 24,385 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing down at 24,400 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt, or 0.75%. Trading volume decreased to 58,730 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,447 lots to 95,485 lots .....

3 hours ago