[SMM Analysis]Supply-Demand Game in Cobalt Market, Divergent Product Trends, Cost Support Boosts Positive Outlook

Refined Cobalt:
Spot refined cobalt prices hovered at lows this week. Supply side, the firm-pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters holding ex-factory quotes steady and traders maintaining spot-futures price spreads at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw weak orders and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, mostly procuring in small batches at high frequency to control inventory risks. However, after prices stabilized at low levels, some enterprises turned bullish on the outlook, and restocking willingness improved. In the short term, weak demand continued to weigh on prices, but high raw material costs and the reverse price spread provided strong floor support. Prices were expected to remain range-bound; as demand recovers going forward, refined cobalt still has upside room.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:
Cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week, with spot quotes edging up gradually. Supply side, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and some miners also participated in market purchases, further intensifying the tight spot supply situation. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered somewhat, but as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, and actual transactions were limited. It was learned that DRC export volumes in March increased significantly, but most cargoes currently remained stranded at South African ports or in transit by land, with a low proportion having secured vessel bookings. Concentrated arrivals at ports were not expected until June–July. As downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is released going forward, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum.

Cobalt Sulphate:
The cobalt sulphate market saw sluggish trading activity this week, with prices continuing a gradual downward trend. Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered quotes to 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders, under cash flow pressure, made concessions on shipments, with low-quality cargo prices staying at 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream orders remained uncertain, compounded by top-tier enterprises having ample inventory and low-priced cargo dampening purchase sentiment, resulting in overall weak restocking willingness downstream, with only small volumes of low-priced resources procured on an as-needed basis. Cost side, cobalt intermediate product prices rose, and Indonesia's nickel tax policy pushed up smelting costs, significantly weakening enterprises' willingness to cut prices; meanwhile, some downstream players believed prices were already at low levels and their own inventory was approaching safety margins, generating restocking willingness. Cobalt sulphate prices may gradually stabilize, and once procurement demand recovers, prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.