【SMM Nickel Flash News】Scenario Simulation and Comparative Analysis of Saprolite and Limonite under the New HPM Formula

Concrete figures on the EU safeguard successor's country-specific steel import quotas have begun to surface for the first time, with an Asian industry minister reportedly indicating that individual countries may have been granted significantly higher quotas than previously assumed, suggesting Trade Commissioner Šefčovič may have made greater concessions than anticipated. The minister reportedly stated that nothing had been offered to the EU and warned the measure could violate free trade agreements, with countermeasures possible. Data remains unverified and markets await official publication.

Chinese Taiwan's upstream mills including Yusco and Tang Eng repeatedly raised stainless steel prices in H1 2026, supported by a nickel price rebound and Indonesian supply policies. However, momentum is fading as downstream processors and distributors report sluggish orders and difficulty passing costs on to end customers, with buyers adopting a cautious, hand-to-mouth purchasing approach. For H2, analysts see prices caught between a firm cost floor, underpinned by Indonesian refined nickel capacity and Asian billet prices, and a demand ceiling where EU CBAM levies and a disappointing global manufacturing recovery are suppressing export orders. A mild restocking pickup is possible around October as seasonal demand improves, but mill-buyer price negotiations are expected to remain tense throughout the period.

Japan plans to impose provisional anti-dumping duties from July on nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from Chinese Taiwan, Chinese Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs stated on June 22 that overall export damage is limited: China Steel Corporation does not produce the investigated products; leading exporter Yusco secured the lowest rate of 3.86%, preserving its competitive position; and Walsin Lihwa primarily exports non-investigated products to Japan. Domestic mills note that Japan represents a minor share of Chinese Taiwan's total stainless steel exports. Government officials have pledged to maintain dialogue with Japanese counterparts and support local industries in adopting AI and low-carbon technologies.