[Price Review] Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced mid-week, putting precious metal prices under pressure. US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remained in a prolonged deadlock, as the US unilaterally announced indefinite ceasefire was not recognized by Iran, which stated explicitly that negotiations would not proceed as long as the US maintained its naval blockade. Both sides continued to maintain military readiness and shipping blockade measures. Whether subsequent negotiations can resume and whether there is escalation risk will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, in turn significantly impacting silver price trends. In the short term, Middle East developments remain the core variable, but after multiple extreme stress tests, precious metals showed enhanced resilience, and declining geopolitical tail risks may suggest limited pullback room. However, sluggish industrial demand persisted and the spot market remained in sustained surplus. Gold/silver ratio, as of April 23, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 61.
[Key Data]
Bearish: US March CPI rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, hitting the highest level since 2024.
The IMF cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, warning that if the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, global growth could further slow to 2.5%.
The US labor market showed stronger-than-expected resilience, with initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 falling to 207,000, the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations of 215,000.
Eurozone March harmonized CPI final YoY reading was unexpectedly revised up to 2.6%, with a sharp 1.3% MoM increase, reflecting persistent core inflation stickiness.
Bullish: US March PPI rose 4.0% YoY, the highest since February 2023 but significantly below market expectations of 4.6%; MoM up 0.5%, well below the expected 1.1%, with core PPI up only 0.1% MoM, missing expectations of 0.5%.
Dovish divergence persisted within the US Fed, with some officials believing multiple interest rate cuts remain possible this year, emphasizing that energy price shocks are one-off events, preserving easing expectations for the market.
US economic slowdown concerns emerged, as the IMF simultaneously cut the US 2026 growth forecast to 1.8%, and market expectations for the US Q1 annualized GDP preliminary reading pulled back significantly from the prior value.
Key data and macro events to watch next week include:
April 24: US April one-year inflation expectations final, US April Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary, Eurozone April Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary.
April 29: US Fed April FOMC rate decision and policy statement, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference.
April 30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 26, US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ preliminary, US March core PCE price index, Eurozone Q1 GDP preliminary and March unemployment rate.
May 2: US April nonfarm payrolls report.
[Price Forecast] The trading logic in the precious metals market recently still revolves around uncertainties arising from the recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, inflation concerns triggered by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations and Fed Chairman transition, economic stagflation, recession and financial market risks, etc. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, just-in-time procurement demand from silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises showed no improvement, the upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory was difficult to reverse, and the mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to continue declining. Next week, silver price movements remain full of uncertainties amid recurring geopolitical conflicts, and silver prices are expected to continue in a range-bound consolidation pattern.
