Antofagasta's Q1 Cash Cost Performed Strongly, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.16 Thursday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,250/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to touch a low of $13,222.5/mt, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,304.5/mt, before experiencing wild swings and ultimately closing at $13,276/mt, down 0.15%, with trading volume at 22,800 lots and open interest at 289,000 lots, down 174 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 102,160 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward in early trading to reach 102,450 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted downward to touch 101,760 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward again to ultimately close at 102,060 yuan/mt, down 0.22%, with trading volume at 27,700 lots and open interest at 157,000 lots, down 2,533 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On April 15 (Wednesday), Chile's Antofagasta mining company released its Q1 2026 production report. CEO Iván Arriagada said he was pleased to report another quarter of strong cash cost performance. The group's net cash cost was ¢108 per pound for the quarter, with Los Pelambres mine at ¢72 per pound and Centinela mine at ¢34 per pound. This fully demonstrated the quality of the company's asset portfolio, including its significant exposure to gold and molybdenum operations.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On April 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2604 contract were quoted at premiums of 40-190 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 115 yuan/mt. It was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2604 contract largely traded within 102,200-102,950 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2605 contract traded within 102,250-103,100 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 100 to 30 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2604 contract ranged from a loss of 390 to 250 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to officially shift to quoting against the 2605 contract. Market structure side, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts operated within the 100-30 yuan/mt range. Suppliers who had established long arbitrage positions under the previous backwardation structure are more inclined to hold positions for delivery to capture the spread gains under the current structure, with limited willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing some support for spot premiums. Demand side, copper prices rose again intraday, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance with limited acceptance of current price levels, leading to cautious purchasing. In addition, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the last trading day; if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, this may exert periodic pressure on spot premiums. Overall, under the dual effects of spread structure support and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 15, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,905 yuan/mt, up 1,825 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,805 yuan/mt, up 1,825 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, trading was sluggish on the contract rollover day, but suppliers remained willing to hold prices firm, and spot premiums continued to rise.
(3) Imported copper: On April 15, the average warrant price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $73/mt (price range $68–78/mt); the average B/L price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $71/mt (price range $66–76/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $40/mt (price range $36–44/mt). Quotes were referenced to cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 15, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 102,390 yuan/mt, up 1,620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 115 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 15, copper scrap prices rose 900 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.69, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.27. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,172 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,830 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices continued to rise, intensifying the fear of high prices among many scrap utilization enterprises, which were reluctant to purchase more or even halted procurement of copper scrap, resulting in mediocre intraday transactions.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said the Iran conflict was about to conclude and threatened to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure. He also warned Powell to step down in a timely manner and hoped Fed nominee Warsh would be confirmed soon, saying interest rates were expected to fall after his appointment. The US requested a two-week ceasefire extension, but Iran has not yet agreed. The White House denied having formally made the request, and both sides remain in contact. US media reported progress in negotiations, with a framework agreement to end the war gradually taking shape. A Lebanon ceasefire was about to take effect, with Hezbollah agreeing but demanding Israel fulfill its commitments. The US hoped for a ceasefire but did not pressure Israel. Additionally, Iran proposed allowing free passage for vessels on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, expectations for a new round of US-Iran peace talks were largely in line with market expectations, and copper prices stabilized. On the fundamentals front, on the supply side, the price spread between futures contracts led suppliers to prefer holding positions for delivery to capture the spread, resulting in tight spot circulation. On the demand side, copper prices rose again, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, with procurement becoming more cautious. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]