U.S.-Iran Tensions Fluctuated, LME Zinc Center Edged Up [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,318/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc fluctuated downward and hit a low of $3,297/mt during the night session. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, and the LME zinc center shifted upward, touching a high of $3,338/mt near the close, ultimately closing up at $3,335/mt, up $10/mt, a 0.3% change. Trading volume increased to 8,912 lots, and open interest increased by 772 lots to 213,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,690 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it briefly rose to touch a high of 23,725 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears increased their positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of 23,570 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately closing down at 23,585 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt, a 0.35% change. Trading volume decreased to 29,862 lots, and open interest increased by 951 lots to 77,560 lots.
Macro:
Trump considered resuming limited military strikes against Iran; starting at 10 PM on the 13th, the US military would blockade maritime traffic at Iranian ports; informed officials: the second round of US-Iran negotiations may be held within days; Iran's Revolutionary Guard: the Strait of Hormuz allows non-military vessels to pass; the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee was authorized to release ten policy measures to promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation; the CSRC released reform opinions on the ChiNext board, adding a fourth set of listing standards; the SSE: the price limit ratio for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%.
Spot market:
Shanghai: The purchase sentiment for refined zinc in the Shanghai region was 2.14, and the shipments sentiment was 2.75. There were relatively many traders making shipments in the Shanghai market. Overall spot premiums saw relatively small changes, while downstream enterprises were not active in inquiring about prices. Overall spot purchases remained based on pricing after rigid demand, and spot trades in the market were sluggish.
Guangdong: The purchase sentiment for refined zinc in the Guangdong region was 1.88, and the sales sentiment was 2.84. Last Friday, zinc prices hovered at highs with the center shifting slightly lower, and downstream purchase willingness was weak. Although some traders quoted relatively high prices, actual market transactions were sluggish. Affected by this, some traders continued to lower premiums, and premiums in the Guangdong region declined in tandem.
Tianjin: The purchase sentiment for refined zinc in the Tianjin region was 1.74, and the shipments sentiment was 2.51. Last Friday, zinc prices mainly fluctuated, with downstream players still holding a wait-and-see attitude. Traders' shipments remained at significant discounts, and overall market transactions were moderate.
Ningbo: In the morning, futures zinc prices declined but did not reach downstream psychological price levels. Last Friday, spot transactions in Ningbo remained driven by rigid demand. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, and traders mainly focused on shipments. Overall spot premiums were basically stable compared to last Thursday.
Social inventory: On April 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 125 mt to 111,925 mt, a decline of 0.11%. According to SMM communications, as of April 9, China's inventory increased.
Zinc Price Forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc posted a small bullish candlestick. The market was awaiting the results of US-Iran negotiations. The US dollar weakened, boosting non-ferrous metals, which saw broad-based gains. Meanwhile, low LME inventory provided support for LME zinc. The center of LME zinc shifted upward, and it is expected to trade in a range-bound manner today. Last Friday, SHFE zinc posted a small bearish candlestick. Macro uncertainties increased, and China continued to see inventory buildup. Overall consumption fell short of expectations, with fundamentals weighing on zinc price movements. SHFE zinc is expected to trade in the doldrums today.

Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.