BC Copper Fluctuated and Closed Up 0.59%, Geopolitical Easing Supported Stronger Copper Prices [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 86,560 yuan/mt, swung wildly lower in early trading to touch a low of 86,560 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. After the daytime session opened, the copper price center gradually shifted higher to reach 87,590 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 87,310 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. Open interest stood at 65.48 million lots, an increase of 17 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 2,894 lots, indicating bulls adding positions. On the macro front, Israel sought peace talks with Lebanon, and ceasefire expectations heated up again. Although the fluctuating attitudes of both the US and Iran kept market uncertainty alive, overall sentiment leaned optimistic, supporting copper prices to hold up well. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper arrivals continued, while domestic supply saw reduced arrivals due to maintenance, and suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, making low-priced sources hard to find in the market. Demand side, copper prices mainly fluctuated at highs, and downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement.

The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 98,440 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 87,310 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 98,660 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -220, with the inversion maintained and widening compared to the previous day.