Fundamentals Improved but Suppressed by News, Iron Ore Closed Slightly Lower [SMM Imported Ore Daily Review]

DCE iron ore futures rose first then fell today. The most-traded contract I2605 ultimately closed at 797.5 yuan/mt, down 0.44% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while steel mills showed heavy wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions remained limited.

Fundamentals, total arrivals at Chinese ports last week declined 8.7% WoW to 24.42 million mt. The supply side narrowed in the short term, and the overall loose supply pattern improved. However, according to the latest SMM survey data, blast furnaces at steel mills nationwide remained in a state of production resumptions after entering April, but both new maintenance and production resumption volumes decreased notably, providing stable support for the downside of ore prices. Nevertheless, relatively high port inventory levels and spot prices also dampened transaction activity while capping upside potential for prices. News side, sporadic rumors about negotiation progress emerged in the market, but given the risks ahead, most participants maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment. Therefore, ore prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with unilateral trends unlikely before new developments enter the market.