[SMM Nickel Midday Commentary] On April 1, nickel prices rose slightly, and Trump said the war against Iran would end in the short term

SMM Nickel News, April 1:

Macro and market news:

(1) China and Pakistan proposed a five-point initiative on restoring peace and stability in the Gulf and Middle East region: first, immediately cease hostilities; second, launch peace talks as soon as possible; third, ensure the safety of non-military targets; fourth, ensure the security of shipping lanes; fifth, ensure that the UN Charter takes precedence.

(2) Trump said the US would end the war against Iran within "two to three weeks" and may reach an agreement with Iran before then.

Spot market:

On April 1, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract moved sideways in early trading and closed the morning session at 135,500 yuan/mt, down 0.1%.

Supply side, tightening nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxation," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.