[SMM Analysis] March Aluminum Liquid Ratio Increase Exceeded Expectations; Expected to Continue Rising in April

Published: Mar 31, 2026 18:20

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SMM News on March 31:
According to SMM statistics, China’s aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM.
This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream industries moved higher overall, and the proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded in tandem, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment toward casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China’s aluminum casting ingot volume in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM.
Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China’s existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change.
Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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