Deep-Sea Mining Refining Project Planned for the US; Overnight LME Copper Closed Higher, SHFE Copper Edged Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, Mar 31, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,223/mt. It swung widely in early trading and climbed to $12,278/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of $12,153.5/mt. It then fluctuated with wide swings again and finally closed at $12,195/mt, up 0.44%. Trading volume reached 15,300 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, down 454 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,100 yuan/mt and hit a high of 96,240 yuan/mt in early trading. The center of copper prices then gradually moved lower to a low of 95,210 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 95,350 yuan/mt, down 0.05%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 183,000 lots, down 2,394 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation by bulls.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 29 (Sunday), deep-sea mining company Glomar Minerals and Australia’s Cobalt Blue Holdings announced a joint agreement to process seabed minerals in the US. The consortium will work to build the world’s first commercial-scale polymetallic processing facility, named “Project Infinity,” and has already begun selecting a site in the US. This came as interest continued to grow in mining nickel, manganese, copper, and other critical minerals from the ocean floor worldwide. Demand for these minerals is expected to surge in the coming years, which will drive the governments of the US, Japan, and other countries to seek new alternative supplies. Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to select a US site for the refinery before June and begin commercial production before the end of Trump’s term in 2029.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 30, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap and then gradually rose. It opened at 95,440 yuan/mt. After the opening, the price fell rapidly to a low of 94,860 yuan/mt, then gradually rebounded to a high of 95,740 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 95,630 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months was between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month ranged from a loss of 70 yuan/mt to a profit of 40 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Demand side, as it was currently month-end, most downstream enterprises had basically completed their monthly procurement plans, with limited new purchasing demand, and the remainder was mainly focused on picking up goods under long-term contracts. Therefore, there were few inquiries during the day and transactions were sluggish. However, it was expected that on Wednesday this week, as a new monthly procurement cycle begins, coupled with stockpiling demand ahead of the Qingming Festival, downstream buyers with cargo needs may see some increase in purchasing demand, which may provide temporary support to spot premiums. Supply side, imported cargoes had continued to arrive recently, and the destocking speed of social inventory in Shanghai had slowed down, leaving overall circulating supply relatively ample and thereby capping the room for discount repair. Overall, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels today. After mid-week, attention should be paid to whether increased downstream procurement can drive a slight narrowing of discounts.
(2) Guangdong: On March 30, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Friday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 95,225 yuan/mt, down 270 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,120 yuan/mt, down 255 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream restocking demand weakened at month-end, and suppliers slightly lowered premiums for shipments, with overall trading weaker than last Friday.
(3) Imported copper: On March 30, the average warrant price fell by $1/mt from the previous trading day to $68/mt (price range: $62-74/mt); the average B/L price fell by $1/mt from the previous trading day to $66/mt (price range: $60-72/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell by $1/mt from the previous trading day to $38/mt (price range: $32-42/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in early to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: On March 30, the 11:30 futures closing price was 95,630 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -55 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 30, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.38, the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.39, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 464 yuan/mt, down 322 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 980 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices rebounded intraday, and copper scrap suppliers shipped on higher prices. Secondary copper raw material consuming enterprises said that although supply increased somewhat, bare bright copper wire supply remained very limited, so secondary copper rod enterprises may see production decline due to insufficient raw material procurement.
Prices: On the macro front, a US Fed governor mentioned that interest rates could be cut gradually by 1 percentage point within a year, while Powell said energy shocks are usually short-lived and patience is warranted. After the remarks, the market priced in only about 3 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament approved the imposition of strait transit fees, US-Iran negotiations continued, Trump threatened to strike Iran’s energy facilities if talks collapsed, and Europe said Iran was pushing Houthi armed operations in the Red Sea, though internal differences remained. Overall, the macro environment changed relatively little. Fundamentals: Supply side, spot copper cathode supply was ample, imported cargoes continued to arrive, destocking in social inventory slowed, and circulating market supply remained sufficient; demand side, with month-end approaching, purchasing sentiment weakened significantly, downstream purchase willingness was sluggish, and overall demand remained soft. Overall, copper prices were expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]