Stable Volumes, Rising Prices: China's Prebaked Anode Exports Show Resilience in 2026 [SMM Analysis]

SMM News, March 29:

According to customs data, China’s prebaked anode exports were 257,000 mt in January 2026 and 134,700 mt in February. Rough estimates showed that the average export price of prebaked anode was about $845.39/mt in January, up 28.29% YoY and up 1.27% MoM; in February, the average export price of prebaked anode was about $877.8/mt, up 28.57% YoY and up 3.83% MoM. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative prebaked anode exports totaled 391,700 mt, up 0.43% YoY.

By export region in China, prebaked anode exports in 2026 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Among them, Shandong ranked first with cumulative exports of 246,200 mt, accounting for 63% of the total; Hunan followed with cumulative exports of 46,600 mt, accounting for 12%; Jiangsu came next with cumulative exports of 38,600 mt, accounting for 10%.

By destination country, China’s prebaked anode exports in 2026 mainly went to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Canada, which together accounted for about 57% of total exports. Exports to Malaysia totaled about 81,000 mt, accounting for 21% of total exports, up 52.78% YoY; exports to Indonesia totaled about 77,700 mt, accounting for 20%, up 119.36% YoY; exports to Canada totaled 62,900 mt, accounting for 16%, down 20.59% YoY.

Overall, at the beginning of 2026, prebaked anode export orders were moderate, with an overall trend of basically flat scale, stable total export market volume, and sharp structural divergence. The data showed explosive growth in China’s prebaked anode exports to Southeast Asia, with significant increases in markets such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Azerbaijan, reflecting the shift of outside China aluminum capacity to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which drove a surge in prebaked anode demand and became the core engine for future export growth. Demand from European countries such as France and Norway rose sharply, highlighting the strengthening competitiveness of China’s products in the high-end market. In addition, exports to the Russian Federation fell off a cliff, mainly affected by geopolitics and trade restrictions. According to SMM, overall export orders in 2026 remained moderate, mainly due to the commissioning of new capacity in the Southeast Asian aluminum market in 2026 and the resumption of capacity at some enterprises, which lifted overall demand. However, since Q1, some aluminum enterprises in the Middle East announced production cuts and suspensions, putting certain pressure on China’s prebaked anode exports. Overall, amid the structural adjustment of shifting demand across global regions, China’s prebaked anode exports could offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders, coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages. Full-year China prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase.