Stainless Steel Spot Prices and Costs Rose in Tandem, Easing Pressure From Losses at Steel Mills [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs rose in tandem, though the losses between steel mill costs and prices narrowed slightly. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -0.7% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, it reached 1.15%.

Nickel raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although news disruptions from Indonesia persisted during the week and nickel ore prices held up well, with most NPI producers suffering losses, stainless steel prices currently struggled to rise, while steel mills themselves faced significant cost pressure and showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Although the NPI market had the intention to probe higher, weak overall transactions constrained it, and actual price increases faced resistance. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 0.5 yuan/nickel unit to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel unit.

Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices rose slightly this week, mainly boosted by macro news, stronger futures, and rising finished steel prices. The US-Iran conflict and news of Indonesia taxing nickel products stimulated stronger SS futures, pushing stainless steel spot prices higher and in turn boosting stainless steel scrap prices. Although stainless steel scrap had a clear economic advantage, tight tax invoices caused by reverse invoicing and high inventory capped its upside room, so it only posted a slight increase. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market saw a mild upward trend this week, with short-term support still in place but insufficient upward momentum. If the tax invoice issue remains unresolved, prices are expected to continue fluctuating. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt to about 10,150 yuan/mt.

Chrome raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable this week. Although overseas market chrome ore futures prices still had room to be raised, China port chrome ore inventory remained high. In addition, ferrochrome producers recently showed weak willingness to purchase chrome ore, and China chrome ore prices pulled back, weakening cost support for ferrochrome. Meanwhile, current ferrochrome retail prices were already significantly higher than steel mill tender prices, and further gains in high-carbon ferrochrome prices faced resistance. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were unchanged from last week at 8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content).