On March 25, 2026, driven by a shift in macro sentiment, tin prices opened higher in the morning, but downside support remained limited, with the overall market still in the doldrums. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 352,430 yuan/mt today, up 1.91%; three-month LME tin was last quoted at $44,675/mt, up 2.02%.
The core market logic currently still centered on developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In recent days, the US proposed a ceasefire plan to Iran containing multiple conditions and actively pushed for negotiations, triggering market expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East. Affected by this, crude oil prices pulled back temporarily, while safe-haven and anti-inflation demand for capital temporarily shifted toward the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors, driving broad gains in non-ferrous metals. Although the US and Iran still differed in their positions, and the US faced relatively high inflation and public opinion pressure at home, expectations for easing tensions sharply boosted market sentiment in the short term.
Spot side, after tin prices rebounded today, spot market transactions showed mediocre performance. Most downstream enterprises mainly digested existing inventory, and only a few small rigid-demand orders followed in the afternoon. In solder, affected by price increases in core components such as memory used in terminal consumer electronics, some major terminal enterprises adjusted prices accordingly. Meanwhile, the market expected the 2026 terminal consumer electronics market size to shrink, with some capacity accelerating its shift to Southeast Asia and India, putting overall production and shipments under downward pressure. In the tin chemicals segment, operating rates at enterprises were clearly constrained as PVC, the main downstream sector, was affected by raw material constraints and rising cost pressure caused by crude oil price fluctuations. The overall tinplate market remained weak but stable. Against the backdrop of limited digestion of domestic demand in the current Chinese market, coupled with anti-dumping policies introduced by some countries that hindered exports, enterprises were under pressure on both fronts.
Overall, current bottom support for tin prices remained relatively insufficient, and subsequent moves required close observation of actual developments in the Middle East situation. In the short term, easing geopolitical tensions and anti-inflation expectations may continue to provide some support to prices; but if the situation sees renewed twists or further deterioration, the price center will come under pressure again. Tin prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement pattern in the near term, with focus on shifts in macro sentiment and the actual procurement pace of downstream buyers.
