Freeport CEO Said Copper Demand Will Remain Resilient, with Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Surging Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply and hit a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting short covering overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher and touched a high of 95,900 yuan/mt. Copper prices then maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, before dipping to 94,530 yuan/mt near the close and finally closing at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting short covering throughout the day.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 23 (Monday), Freeport-McMoRan CEO Kathleen Quirk said that despite market turmoil caused by the Middle East conflict, copper demand for electrification, data centers, and other high-tech sectors is expected to remain resilient. As one of the most conductive metals, copper is widely used in motors, computers, batteries, and wires worldwide. Because its demand is regarded as a barometer of global economic health, it is known as "Dr. Copper." The artificial intelligence industry in particular has been consuming large amounts of copper for computer servers and related facilities. However, copper prices have fallen sharply since the US and Israel launched military action against Iran in late February. Quirk said that although the copper market has been roiled by the conflict, she expects global copper demand to grow. "The market is pricing in uncertainty over global economic growth, and 'Dr. Copper' (copper prices) influences people's perception of global risks," Quirk said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston. "But the drivers of copper demand growth are inherently more long term." As the world's largest listed copper company, Freeport produced 1.3 billion lb (589,670 mt) of copper in the US last year, all of which was sold in the domestic market, while its global production reached 3.38 billion lb (1,533,142 mt).
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 23, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap and then rebounded, followed by a rangebound pattern. It fell at the open to a low of 91,890 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 92,800 yuan/mt, after which prices fluctuated between 92,600 yuan/mt and 93,100 yuan/mt, then touched a high of 93,130 yuan/mt before pulling back, with the closing price at 92,620 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts stood between contango of 30 yuan/mt and backwardation of 20 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month was between a profit of 240 yuan/mt and a profit of 320 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue in a tug-of-war pattern. Intraday, copper prices fell somewhat, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the concentrated replenishment last week, actual new procurement was relatively limited. From the inventory perspective, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. Intraday, supplier quotations were steady first and then lower, and suppliers actively shipped on the rebound in premiums, while selling pressure weighed on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 23, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous trading day; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 70 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 92,985 yuan/mt, down 2,960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,865 yuan/mt, down 2,965 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as futures shifted into a backwardation structure, suppliers actively shipped, spot premiums turned into discounts, and overall trading was average.
(3) Imported copper: On March 23, the average warrant price rose $4/mt from the previous trading day to $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 23, the futures closing price was 92,620 yuan/mt, down 3,230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average spot premiums stood at -50 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 23, copper scrap prices fell 3,300 yuan/mt MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap fell to 2.21, the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.27, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 14 yuan/mt, down 431 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 480 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to the sharp pullback in copper prices, most holders of copper scrap stopped quoting, while buyers found it difficult to close deals even when willing to purchase at high prices.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said that after negotiations on easing hostilities in the Middle East, he would delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and suggested that both sides could jointly control the Strait of Hormuz. These remarks eased market concerns over geopolitical risks, and the weaker US dollar directly boosted copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes will continue to arrive, and overall market supply remains ample; demand side, supported by the pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness continued to rebound. Inventory side, as of Monday, March 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 14.54% WoW from the previous Monday, with significant destocking across all regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]