Gold and Silver Struggle at $5,000 and $80 Marks – Dollar Strength Slows the Rally

Published: 18. March 2026

Gold and silver continue to move within a difficult tension between geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy headwinds. Both precious metals are currently testing important support levels within their broader consolidation patterns, without a new clear upward impulse having developed so far. Gold is trading again around $5,000 per ounce at the start of the new trading day, while silver is fluctuating between $80 and $81 per ounce. This keeps gold and silver in close proximity to significant chart zones, but the hoped-for continuation of the rally remains elusive for now.

This is particularly noteworthy because the environment could actually provide support at first glance. The ongoing war by the U.S. and Israel against Iran increases geopolitical uncertainty, while supply chain disruptions are weighing on global growth. Nevertheless, gold and silver have so far failed to gain new bullish momentum from this situation. Instead, another factor is currently having a stronger effect: the U.S. dollar.

Gold and Silver Lose Ground Against the U.S. Dollar in the Short Term

According to several market observers, recent dollar strength remains the most important restraining factor for gold and silver. The war in the Middle East is supporting the greenback from Trade Nation’s perspective, as concerns about liquidity are increasing in global financial markets. Even though the Dollar Index has not been able to sustainably defend the 100-point mark so far, it remains stable at 99.17 and is not under significant selling pressure.

This is an unfavorable constellation for gold and silver. Both precious metals traditionally struggle when the U.S. dollar trends firmly, as they become more expensive for buyers outside the dollar zone while alternative flight movements into the U.S. currency appear more attractive. This pattern seems to be repeating itself at present. Trade Nation points out that momentum indicators for gold and silver are currently not showing a clear direction.

This also changes the short-term role of gold as a classic safe haven. The impression is solidifying that the market currently prefers the U.S. dollar as the first hedge in the event of new escalation in the Middle East. For gold and silver, this does not necessarily mean an end to the broader uptrend, but it does mean a phase of increased vulnerability to profit-taking and sideways movements.

High Oil Prices and Yields Add Additional Pressure on Gold and Silver

In addition to dollar developments, gold and silver are also coming under pressure from the interest rate side. Oil prices remain elevated, with West Texas Intermediate still trading above $95 per barrel. This fuels inflation concerns and keeps the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds above 4%. For precious metals, this is also a short-term headwind, as higher yields increase the opportunity costs of non-yielding assets.

The new inflation threat is hitting a market that has already significantly scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts. According to Commerzbank, Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in less than a full 25 basis point rate cut by year-end. Since the start of the war, nearly 50 basis points of expected rate cuts have been priced out of the market. This shift in sentiment is significant for gold and silver, as hopes for looser monetary policy were previously an important supporting factor.

At the same time, this very issue is likely to focus attention on the ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. The key will be what signal comes after the FOMC meeting. Commerzbank sees a possible turning point here: if the door remains open for later rate cuts, gold could rally again. However, the combination of war uncertainty and possible disruptions to oil supply is likely to make the Fed cautious. This makes clear statements about future interest rate policy difficult—and keeps gold and silver in an environment of heightened uncertainty for now.

ETF Outflows Reflect Current Market Caution

The tense situation is now also reflected in investment behavior. According to Commerzbank, ETF investors have withdrawn capital from gold products over the past two weeks. Bloomberg-tracked holdings in gold ETFs have declined by 37 tons. This has practically wiped out all inflows since mid-January. For gold and silver, this is an indication that some investors have become more cautious in the short term and are securing profits in light of dollar strength, high yields, and uncertain interest rate prospects.

Nevertheless, sentiment toward precious metals is not entirely negative. Many analysts see no reason to write off gold and silver yet. Société Générale points out that gold appears deceptively calm at first glance. Saxo Bank also emphasizes that gold continues to hold above its 50-day line, even if the market appears vulnerable in the short term. From this perspective, the technical picture remains damaged but not broken.

The Long-Term Case for Gold and Silver Remains Intact

This very distinction between short-term pressure and long-term perspective is currently crucial for gold and silver. Saxo Bank points out that the long-term argument for real assets remains intact. While rising inflation concerns, higher long-term interest rates, and a stronger dollar have created short-term headwinds and triggered profit-taking after the strong rally, this does not necessarily imply a fundamental trend reversal.

In addition, a prolonged conflict with Iran could change the situation again. Several analysts consider it possible that gold and silver could attract stronger safe-haven demand again if the war drags on and economic or financial risks become more noticeable. The current market therefore appears less like an environment of fundamental loss of confidence in precious metals and more like a phase of recalibration.

Overall, gold and silver remain in a technically and macroeconomically sensitive situation. In the short term, dollar strength, inflation concerns, and postponed rate cut expectations dominate. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain high and the environment is vulnerable to new flight movements into defensive assets. This very tension explains why both precious metals are currently testing support levels without the broader market direction having been decided yet.

Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-struggle-at-5000-and-80-marks-dollar-strength-slows-the-rally/