The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Rebounded Fluctuationally After Opening Sharply Lower in the Night Session, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Brisk [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

March 20, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened sharply lower in the night session and then fluctuated upward, closing at 345,820 yuan/mt, down 2.31%.

Macro: (1) On the afternoon of March 19, Li Bin, founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO, said at the Advanced Manufacturing Summit in Shanghai that cumulative mass production of NIO's self-developed chips had exceeded 550,000 units. He said the automotive semiconductor industry was currently facing three major challenges: a surge in AI computing power demand, fragmentation of chip systems, and supply chain fluctuations. NIO was advancing the unification and standardisation of automotive chips, aiming to cover full-vehicle model selection with no more than 400 specifications; by 2027, the localisation rate of NIO's automotive semiconductors is expected to reach 35%–40%. (2) TrendForce said that the two major wafer foundries, TSMC and Samsung Electronics, had raised prices for the mainstream advanced AI chip processes of 5/4nm. For TSMC, capacity at the 5/4nm, 3nm, and 2nm periods will remain fully loaded, and toll processing prices for these processes have all been increased; meanwhile, Samsung's wafer foundry order volume for 5/4nm also increased significantly, so it also issued price increase notices to clients in 2025 Q4.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, most smelters are expected to gradually resume production and work, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases remained relatively cautious. Downstream enterprises will gradually resume production and work, but orders were relatively mediocre.

Spot market: Yesterday, trading in the spot market was relatively brisk. Some traders sold one to two truckloads, and downstream enterprises showed strong purchasing interest, carrying out some restocking and placing orders. Continued declines in tin prices during the night session further stimulated downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm.

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