Macro Pressure and Supply Recovery Resonated, SHFE Tin Remained Under Pressure and Continued to Weaken [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

On the morning of March 18, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract saw its center move lower after the open, with the intraday low touching around 355,000 yuan/mt. It then rebounded slightly on support from market trading and closed the morning session at 355,930 yuan/mt, down 3.86%. LME tin fluctuated in tandem with SHFE and closed overnight at $44,870/mt, down 1.05%. Tin ore supply in Myanmar gradually recovered, and some major enterprises in Indonesia had begun stable production and shipments, loosening the supply disruption logic that had previously supported tin prices. Against a backdrop of a strong US dollar, pressure was exerted on US dollar-denominated base metals, and tin prices as a whole remained under pressure.

Market inquiry sentiment was moderate this morning, with most downstream bids concentrated in the low-price range around 350,000 yuan/mt. However, according to market feedback, circulating spot availability was currently limited, with most inventory circulating through delivery warehouses. Suppliers' overall willingness to sell was neutral, and quoted premiums remained at relatively high levels. Although actual transactions improved compared with the earlier period, activity was still somewhat restrained.

Overall, tin prices were still pressured by macro factors, and the price center may gradually move lower. However, after the recent consecutive declines, low-price transactions recovered somewhat, which may provide some support to the market. In the short term, tin prices are expected to consolidate around key price levels. Going forward, attention should remain on changes in macro sentiment outside China, as well as whether downstream demand that had been pent up for months can continue to be released within the range.