Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,950 yuan/mt. It hit a high of 89,110 yuan/mt in early trading, then its center trended downward throughout the session, touching a low of 87,330 yuan/mt near the close and finally settling at 88,060 yuan/mt, down 1.16%. Open interest stood at 5,712 lots, down 80 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,375 lots, up 2,090 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to 0.7%, but PCE inflation and job openings data still showed resilience, highlighting stagflation concerns in the economy. Meanwhile, after the subpoena against Powell was dismissed, the Department of Justice was set to appeal, which may delay the appointment process for Warsh. In the Middle East, the US military had bombed Iran's Kharg Island and was expected to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict may become protracted. Iran threatened that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would destroy all US-linked targets. The continued escalation in US-Iran confrontation fueled safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply stabilized. Demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand was gradually released. As of Monday, March 16, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday.
The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,720 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 88,060 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 99,508 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -212 yuan/mt, with the backwardation maintained and widening from the previous day.
