European Tungsten Market Surges 36%, APT Prices Hit $3,000/mtu Amid Tight Supply Conditions

【SMM Magnesium Flash】This week, the social inventory of magnesium ingots increased by 1.59% month-on-month, leading to an overall increase in inventory pressure. At the beginning of the week, a wave of concentrated replenishment of just-needed inventory appeared in the market, briefly driving spot transactions to pick up. However, the effect of boosting the market was fleeting and failed to persist. On the one hand, magnesium producers are firm in their attitude towards price support, which to some extent dampens the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing. On the other hand, the actual demand from end-users is weak, and the market lacks sustained purchasing momentum. There is no significant improvement in foreign trade, and current transactions rely heavily on the delivery of existing orders from earlier periods, with no new large orders to support. Meanwhile, due to recent weather conditions, port shipment schedules are tight and shipping costs remain high, which has hindered the delivery of foreign trade orders and significantly slowed down the pace of export inventory reduction. It is difficult for on-site purchasing sources to quickly be transmitted and digested downstream and overseas, resulting in continuous backlog of supply. Ultimately, this has led to a significant accumulation of social inventory, especially port inventory, this week.

[Silicon Metal Finds Stronger Cost Support After Continuous Declines; Focus on Whether Polysilicon Production Cut Expectations Materialize]: Overall, expectations for Q4 polysilicon production cuts have been building recently, and with some silicon enterprises in the northwest resuming production, bearish market sentiment has kept silicon metal prices in the doldrums. Although silicon metal's own fundamentals in September still showed a MoM supply reduction and slight inventory destocking, growing concerns over downstream demand have kept prices under sustained pressure. As the most-traded silicon metal contract fell to around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt, cost support and buying interest below futures prices have strengthened, and prices may shift to consolidation. The subsequent trend will hinge on whether polysilicon production cut expectations materialize substantively, changes in operating rates among enterprises in the north and south on the supply side, and capital sentiment.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Downstream purchasing sentiment cautious in the silicone market, new order transactions weak] Since monomer plants raised prices successively last week, this week the market has mainly been digesting the increases. Monomer plant quotes remained stable, but transactions for high-priced orders in the market were relatively weak. On the raw material side, affected by geopolitical conditions, import prices for raw material methanol remained firm, providing some support to silicone DMC prices. Overall, the current silicone market is in a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream: the supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the demand side is mainly restocking on a just-in-time basis, with limited high-priced transactions in the market. In the short term, silicone prices will remain stable, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream stockpiling pace before the holiday and the trend of raw material methanol prices.