[Domestic Iron Ore Commentary] Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in the Tangshan Area May Have Some Upside Potential

This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

Today DCE iron ore futures exhibited a firm trend, with the most active I2609 contract ultimately settling at 778.5 RMB per tonne, representing an increase of 0.39 per cent from the previous trading session.

HRC prices first declined then rebounded this week, with the weekly average price edging up slightly and overall transactions improving WoW. Looking ahead, both supply and demand for HRC are expected to increase, the supply-demand imbalance is weakening, and cost support is expected to strengthen. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to hold up well within the 3,280-3,350 range next week.