[SMM Analysis] NCM Price Retreat Fails to Fuel Much Buying Appetite

This week, ternary material prices edged slightly downward. From a raw material perspective, nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate prices remained relatively stable with no significant fluctuations. The primary downward pressure on prices came from lithium sulfates: spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw notable declines in early week, weakening the cost support for ternary materials.

Despite the pronounced decline in lithium sulfate prices early this week, ternary cathode material manufacturers showed relatively limited restocking interest. There are two main reasons for this: First, prior to the price adjustment, most cathode manufacturers had already finalized March orders with downstream battery cell makers and are currently in the order delivery phase, maintaining relatively sufficient raw material inventories. Second, manufacturers generally maintain a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, viewing this adjustment primarily as short-term volatility influenced by international situations, with no expectation of sustained lithium sulfate price declines.

In terms of pricing, although lithium carbonate futures prices experienced adjustments, cathode manufacturers' quotations did not see significant declines, mainly because their raw material costs remain higher than current futures prices. Spot market transactions were also quite subdued this week, with market activity dominated by long-term contract supplies.

On the demand side, the EV market showed seasonal recovery, but downstream customers' order fulfillment pace remained slow due to Q1 new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations. In contrast, e-mobility and consumer electronics markets saw relatively notable growth, primarily driven by some consumer batteries facing "export rush" demand, leading to forward order placements.