Blast Furnace Maintenance Intensity Increased; Futures Fluctuated Rangebound, and Spot Cargo Dropped Slightly [SMM Brief Commentary]

[Flat Products] Flat-product exports steady day-on-day, HRC deals at 489-497 USD/tonne On 8 July, Chinese HRC and other flat-product export prices were steady day-on-day, with HRC export deals concluded at 489-497 USD/tonne FOB. A rally in the domestic futures board that day lifted inquiries somewhat, but most participants judged the upward move to lack staying power, mills showed limited willingness to raise offers, and actual transactions reportedly improved little. At the same time, renewed US-Iran tensions kept Middle East inquiries from recovering meaningfully, and overseas buying stayed cautious overall. Regional fundamentals were soft: Vietnam's Formosa cut its domestic HRC price for August-September delivery by about 40 USD/tonne, with SAE1006 HRC quoted around 545 USD/tonne in Ho Chi Minh City, while Hoa Phat had earlier trimmed its August HRC offer by about 34 USD/tonne, and falling Southeast Asian import prices further capped any upside in Chinese flatproduct export offers. [Billet] Billet export FOB edges up to 459-462 USD/tonne On 8 July, Chinese billet export FOB prices rose by about 1 USD/tonne day-on-day, quoted in a range of 459-462 USD/tonne. On specific terms, 3sp billet in 150*150mm was offered at 462 USD/tonne FOB out of Jiangyin port. Inquiries reportedly increased on the day, but buyers largely stayed on the sidelines after checking prices, so concluding deals remained difficult; the gain reflected a modest lift in offers rather than any pickup in transacted volume. [Rebar] Rebar export prices little changed, order intake recovers slowly On 8 July, market feedback indicated that Chinese rebar export prices had shown little movement recently, with limited room for negotiation. On specific terms, B500B rebar in Φ18mm was offered at 483 USD/tonne FOB out of Tianjin port. Overall, export order intake was recovering slowly and booked volumes had shrunk, with a few export-oriented mills cutting output for maintenance; with both supply and demand subdued, prices lacked clear direction.

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended weakly, with contract I2609 closing at 746 yuan/mt, up 0.88% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose by about 5-7 yuan/mt from the previous day. Trader activity was average, and steel mills purchased on an as-needed basis. As of now, spot trading sentiment has been mediocre.