SMM 28 February Update:
According to the SMM survey, the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry demonstrated production resilience after the 2026 Chinese New Year, with a tiered resumption of operations. Leading enterprises resumed shipments from the third (2.19) to the sixth day (2.22) of the first lunar month, while small and medium-sized enterprises gradually restarted operations from the eighth (2.24) to the fifteenth day (3.3) of the first lunar month. In the first week after the holiday, the pace of resuming operations was slow, with some enterprises resuming work after completing equipment maintenance. The recovery downstream was uneven, with the construction sector lagging behind and insufficient orders for curtain wall panels; high-end products such as can stock, automotive sheets, and aerospace sheets maintained stable orders. Aluminum foil enterprises, driven by the resumption of their downstream clients, saw orders gradually increase, with steady demand for food packaging foil and pharmaceutical foil, supported by the installation rush for batteries.
Negotiations on processing fees progressed in an orderly manner: it is difficult for can stock prices to rise, likely remaining at the 2025 level, with confirmation expected by mid-to-late April; the price of bare battery foil has been confirmed to increase by 1,000 yuan/mt, with overall expectations set for the end of March, though the sustainability of Q2 prices remains uncertain; packaging foil is expected to see a price hike of 500-1,000 yuan/mt, to be finalized by the end of March at the latest.
Looking ahead, as the industry moves past the holiday impact following the Lantern Festival, coupled with the approaching peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" and the "rush to export" window brought about by adjustments to the battery export tax rebate policy, the operating rate of the industry is expected to steadily recover in late March. SMM will continue to monitor the progress of downstream resumptions and negotiations on processing fees.
