Post-holiday inventories meet expectations, with peak seen at 1.35–1.40Mt.

Published: Feb 28, 2026 14:29

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SMM February 28 News:
According to SMM estimates, the monthly cast ingot volume of aluminum in February increased by around 170,000 mt MoM, largely in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. Entering March, aluminum smelters have varying plans for the local conversion of liquid aluminum. Due to high prices and high finished product inventories of processed materials, some enterprises indicated that the rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum would be relatively limited; meanwhile, the cast ingot volume of some companies is expected to return to normal levels. Overall, the national proportion of liquid aluminum in March is expected to rebound by 9.1 percentage points compared with February and also increase from January; the total cast ingot volume in March is projected to remain above 1 million mt, which will continue to push up aluminum ingot inventory. The specific inventory situation is as follows:
Social inventory: As of the first working day after the holiday, the national aluminum social inventory was recorded at 1.108 million mt, largely consistent with pre-holiday inventory forecasts; over the two working days after the holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated by nearly 50,000 mt, with the buildup level matching expectations.
Finished product inventories at aluminum plants: By the end of February, according to SMM estimates, finished aluminum ingot inventories at aluminum plants had accumulated by 72,500 mt compared with the end of January, and are expected to be gradually sold externally or shipped to social warehouses.
In summary, with cast ingot volumes remaining high in March, demand recovery still requiring time, and finished aluminum ingot inventories from aluminum plants being gradually dispatched—along with piled-up inventory at stations continuously entering warehouses—the post-holiday inventory peak is still projected to reach around 1.35–1.4 million mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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