Tantalum Ore Prices Surge Due to Supply Disruptions; Ingot Prices Expected to Follow [SMM Analysis]

Recently, the domestic tantalum market, driven by a significant rise in raw material costs, has shown an overall upward trend. Although the pace of price increases for tantalum ingots has lagged slightly, the medium-term upward logic remains clear.

Tantalum ore prices have experienced a substantial increase, with the CIF China price quoted at $160–165 per pound, up 17.32% from pre-holiday quotes. This rise is primarily driven by two factors. On one hand, landslides and production halts at core mining areas have directly led to a tangible contraction in global supply, rapidly tightening the availability of spot cargo. On the other hand, downstream electronics manufacturers and traders, driven by bullish sentiment, have engaged in concentrated stockpiling and price locking, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch in the circulation chain and collectively pushing up transaction prices for ore.

Boosted by strong raw material performance, tantalum product quotes have gradually risen. Transactions for 99.5% tantalum oxide have reached 3,900 yuan/kg, with manufacturers raising prices slightly MoM from pre-holiday levels. For 99.95% tantalum ingot, transactions have occurred at 5,500 yuan/kg, while some manufacturers quote 6,000 yuan/kg, showing minimal increase from pre-holiday quotes. Specifically, some traders are offloading tantalum ingots, creating interference in the upward movement of spot prices and causing a temporary lack of momentum for ingot price hikes. However, with strong cost support from the sharp rise in tantalum ore, downstream procurement demand is expected to be released quickly. Short-term disruptions are unlikely to alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingot quotes are anticipated to soon catch up with the increases, maintaining the overall strong performance of the tantalum market.