Stainless steel cost and prices rose in sync driven by market news in the first week after the holiday, with ample market confidence awaiting the peak season [SMM analysis].

This week, stainless steel spot prices strengthened, while production costs also rose, further expanding steel mills' profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 0.15% this week; if calculated using the raw material inventory cost, it reached 1.74%.

On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, news regarding Indonesian nickel ore continued to develop this week, pushing high-grade NPI prices further up. NPI producers are already in a loss-making position, showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Coupled with expectations of increased stainless steel production in March boosting demand for high-grade NPI, although mainstream stainless steel mills have not yet seen representative transaction prices, market confidence remains strong. As of Friday this week, the price for high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 33.5 yuan per mtu, closing at 1,085 yuan/mtu.

In the stainless steel scrap market, prices remained generally stable this week. Market recovery was slow in the first week after the holiday, as some scrap yards and downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work. The slow return to work led to insufficient trading activity and weak transactions. While futures prices fluctuated higher, boosted by Indonesian policy news, leading to a significant rise in high-grade NPI prices, stainless steel scrap prices did not fluctuate synchronously due to the lag in recovery. The advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI further expanded, providing support for its price. With increased steel mill production schedules in March and the approach of the peak season "Golden March, Silver April", downstream demand is expected to be released, and procurement demand will increase. As of Friday this week, the price for 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt.

Regarding the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. In the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the market gradually recovered, but overall transactions remained relatively sluggish, with retail prices holding steady. During the week, Tsingshan Group announced its March high-carbon ferrochrome tender price, which was unchanged from the previous month at 8,245 yuan/mt (50% metal content). However, with the approaching peak demand season "Golden March, Silver April", expectations of a significant increase in stainless steel production schedules in March, and recent rises in stainless steel prices, market expectations for increased ferrochrome demand have grown, and a sentiment for price exploration has emerged in the ferrochrome market. As of Friday this week, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were flat WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).