[ SMM Analysis ] Nickel intermediate product market mostly adopts a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, but affected by accident disturbances, the center of MHP nickel payables shifts upward.

This week, MHP market transactions were sluggish, with offers moving higher. On the supply side, during the Chinese New Year holiday on February 18, 2026, some MHP projects in an Indonesian park were affected by a tailings dam landslide incident, and production lines are currently operating at low capacity, leading to a reduction in MHP supply. On the demand side, some downstream nickel salt smelters resumed work, and market procurement and sales activity gradually recovered. Under the overall tight supply-demand pattern, the center of MHP nickel payables moved higher, while MHP cobalt payables remained flat at high levels. Looking ahead, on the supply side, Indonesian government personnel proposed accountability measures, and the MHP market has strong expectations for supply contraction; the follow-up handling of the incident needs attention. On the demand side, the policy for canceling or reducing export tax rebates for some new energy products effective April 1 is about to be implemented, leading to a rush to export demand from downstream enterprises. Combined with the release of rigid stocking demand from downstream, nickel payables and cobalt payables are expected to be difficult to decline.

The trading atmosphere in the high-grade nickel matte market remained sluggish after the holiday, with both supply and demand weak, and coefficients were flat. Looking ahead, high-grade nickel matte production growth is limited, and its role as a supplementary raw material substitute for MHP is significant. Coupled with sellers' strong willingness to hold prices firm, nickel payables are expected to be difficult to decline.

For key auxiliary material sulfur, prices fell this week. On the demand side, a safety incident occurred at some MHP projects in an Indonesian park, and production lines are currently operating at low capacity, creating uncertainty in the Indonesian demand outlook. In terms of actual transactions, sulfur trade was significantly stagnant due to the holiday impact. In the short term, focus is on the results of sulfur tenders in the Indonesian market and the guidance from Middle East March contract prices. Due to demand-side disruptions, the transaction price center is expected to move lower.

Regarding nickel prices this week, Indonesia significantly cut its 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota to approximately 250-260 million mt. Combined with disruptions from some MHP project incidents, expectations of supply tightening remain the core driver of current nickel prices. Nickel prices rose WoW this week. In terms of coefficients, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices rose this week, and MHP cobalt prices also increased.