On February 26, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract, sn2604, held up well in the morning session after being boosted by the Myanmar conflict event during the night session, and closed at 432,700 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, up 3.47%. On the LME side, the three-month tin contract also rose, temporarily quoted at $55,250/mt, up 1.59%. Market attention to disruptions in Myanmar tin ore supply once again sparked speculative enthusiasm, driving futures to rise significantly. However, it should be noted that the actual conflict location is far from the main tin ore-producing Wa region, and the direct impact in the short term is limited; the market is advised to treat it rationally.
Overseas supply side, affected by RKAB quota approvals in January, exports fell 47% MoM to 2,653.7 mt, but exports to China bucked the trend, surging 162% to 1,775.0 mt, accounting for 67% of the total. Since February, overall exports have recovered; as of the 26th, Indonesia Exchange data showed tin ingot exports had reached 3,490 mt, and subsequent exports are expected to gradually stabilize.
Spot market side, most downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, limiting demand release. Prices again stood above the 430,000 yuan high, further suppressing downstream purchase willingness; enterprises mostly chose to digest inventories and delay restocking. Although there were large shipments to SHFE delivery warehouses after the holiday, destocking was not significant, and overall circulation remained slow. Some downstream enterprises are still on holiday and plan to resume production after the Lantern Festival on March 3; subsequent attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery and post-holiday end-use consumption performance.
The market, influenced by macro sentiment and event-driven factors, saw active fund participation; tin prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. However, if high prices continue to suppress demand, leading to sluggish downstream purchases and passive inventory accumulation, it may pose some downward pressure later. Follow-up areas to watch include the pace of downstream work resumptions, the recovery of spot transactions, and substantive developments in the Myanmar situation.
