Night session saw the most-traded SHFE tin contract surge significantly and then maintain fluctuating trend, while spot market trading was relatively sluggish [SMM Tin Morning Brief].

February 27, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened the night session with a significant rally and continued to hover at highs, closing at 425,500 yuan/mt, up 1.88%.

Macro: (1) The Fujian Provincial Department of Commerce and eight other departments recently issued the "Implementation Rules for the 2026 Automobile Trade-in Program in Fujian Province." The rules state that subsidies for purchasing eligible passenger NEVs will be 8% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan; subsidies for purchasing eligible fuel-powered passenger vehicles will be 6% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 13,000 yuan. (2) Artificial intelligence once again captured traders' attention. Despite Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings, its stock performed weakly throughout the day, ultimately closing down over 5%, dampening market sentiment. Influenced by the weak performance of the U.S. semiconductor sector, benchmark index contracts in Japan and South Korea, where tech stocks have a high weighting, declined, while contracts in Australia and Hong Kong saw slight gains. These fluctuations further indicate the market's high sensitivity to AI-related news, as participants strive to understand the long-term impact of this rapidly developing technology. Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Hardika Singh believes the market's mediocre reaction to Nvidia's earnings beat is partly because investors now take such outstanding performance for granted.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt operations for maintenance in February, entering the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases remain cautious, with pre-holiday restocking largely completed; downstream enterprises will gradually begin to halt operations for the break.

Spot market: The market is still in a post-holiday recovery transition period, with prices influenced more by macro sentiment than actual demand, warranting caution against correction risks. Future attention should be on whether macro sentiment can gain sustained support from actual demand follow-through, as well as the actual purchase willingness of downstream enterprises after full resumption of work and the pace of inventory digestion.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]