SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.26
Futures:The most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,879 yuan/mt overnight, hit a high of 2,883 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,850 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,874 yuan/mt, up 4 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 8,601 lots to 314,000 lots. The phased tightness of spot cargo in certain regions provided some confidence to the market, but the industry surplus persists, and trading overall remains cautious. Technically, the closing price was above the MA5 (2,833.40), MA10 (2,838.10), and MA30 (2,795.20), indicating continued upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DIF (23.59) crossed above the DEA (17.07), sustaining a golden cross at low levels, with the histogram at 13.06. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term.
Industry Dynamics:
1) According to a report by Ghana Web on February 14, Ghanaian President Mahama announced that Ghana plans to stop exporting unprocessed ore by 2030. The President stated that this move aims to support local processing enterprises, enabling them to lead the government's flagship industrial development and job creation plan. On February 13, 2026, President Mahama emphasized the importance of halting the export of unprocessed resources in a speech delivered in Addis Ababa. He advocated for enhancing the capacity of local processing enterprises to increase production and strengthen the value chain.
Ore Side:As of February 25, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $61.33/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $37/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, unchanged from the previous day, while the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $54.5/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day, and the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $59/mt, flat from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was reported at $73/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, flat from last Friday. According to an SMM survey, during the Chinese New Year holiday, some domestic mine mouths halted shipments, and current supply is slowly recovering. However, bauxite inventory at various alumina refineries remains above safe levels, leading to weak purchase willingness from alumina refineries. Prices continue to be contested, and further downside room is expected. For imported ore, no spot transactions were heard; however, against the backdrop of declining ore prices, alumina refineries maintain cautious sentiment towards bauxite procurement. Absolute inventory remains high, and overall purchase demand is weak. Additionally, some alumina refineries in north China reported that, amid tightening environmental protection policies, current ore storage must strictly comply with the requirement of using enclosed storage silos or covered stockyards. As a result, alumina refineries are controlling the pace and volume of bauxite transfers from port inventories to stockyards. It is expected that in the near term, imported ore prices will remain under pressure with fluctuations. SMM will continue to monitor the impact of domestic and overseas mine production, port shipments, and policy changes on prices.
Spot prices: As of February 25, 2025, the SMM alumina index was reported at 2,618.49 yuan/mt, up 1.45 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was reported at 2,548.51 yuan/mt, up 3.17 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was reported at 2,616.24 yuan/mt, up 0.52 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was reported at 2,602.39 yuan/mt, up 0.38 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was reported at 2,697.01 yuan/mt, up 2.25 yuan/mt MoM; and the SMM Guangxi alumina index was reported at 2,670.41 yuan/mt, up 0.74 yuan/mt MoM.
Daily spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on February 25, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 234.51 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warehouse warrant daily report: On February 25, the total registered alumina warehouse warrants increased by 19,000 mt to 347,000 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warehouse warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 17,701 mt, in Henan at 6,011 mt, in Guangxi at 12,613 mt, and in Gansu at 36,048 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warehouse warrants increased by 19,000 mt to 275,000 mt compared to the previous trading day.
Overseas market: As of February 25, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $311/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.89, and the converted domestic mainstream port selling price was approximately 2,656.47 yuan/mt, which is 37.98 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window remained closed.
Summary:
Before the holiday, domestic alumina market inventory continued to rebound, and the oversupply situation persisted. Supply side, alumina refineries in various regions gradually resumed production, driving up the overall industry operating rate. Weekly production increased by 11,000 mt WoW. In terms of inventory structure, aluminum smelters' raw material inventory increased by 18,000 mt WoW due to the arrival of previously purchased spot cargoes. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased slightly by 10,000 mt WoW, as production remained relatively stable and daily shipments were maintained. Meanwhile, warehouse warrants continued to grow due to strong futures performance and active point-price deliveries. Recent shipments have remained generally stable, with relatively small fluctuations in shipments under long-term contract, increasing by only 2,000 mt. Due to maintenance initiated by some enterprises and the shutdown of roasting operations in north China, short-term production has declined, leading enterprises to consume their in-factory inventory. It is expected that alumina inventory will show a slight destocking trend in the short term.
[Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
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